Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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497 FXUS65 KFGZ 151729 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1030 AM MST Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Expect another hot, dry mid-June day today before cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest winds to create near critical fire weather conditions both Sunday and Monday. Hot temperatures and lighter winds return towards the end of next week. && .UPDATE...Forecast update this morning mainly focused around upping winds for Sunday into Monday as NBM is running too low, especially with winds gusts. Took MOS guidance which matches well with HREF winds and resulted in higher sustained winds and gusts. This pushed areas of near critical fire danger to RFW conditions. Will continue to evaluate this and send hazards as appropriate with the afternoon package in a couple hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION /412 AM MST/...Weak zonal flow and elevated geopotential pressure heights over the region will allow for sunny skies and daytime temperatures to climb a few to five degrees above average. Southwest winds will be modest with typical afternoon breezes expected. However, this warming trend will be short lived. A broad upper-level trough will dictate the weather across much of the Southwest U.S. the next several days. The associated low pressure center is currently located just west of the southern British Columbia. This low will drop southward into the Pacific Northwest U.S. before progressing eastward over the next several days. This will decrease pressure heights over Arizona while also tightening pressure gradients. Expect temperatures to be near to just below seasonal conditions Sunday through Tuesday. More importantly, winds will steadily increase from late Saturday through Monday. Peak gusts are forecast to be in the 20 to 30 mph range on Sunday, increasing to 25 to 35 mph by Monday with localized areas seeing gusts closer to 40 mph. With fuels continuing to dry out, near critical fire weather conditions are expected due to the low humidity and increasing winds. Be firewise, and follow all burn bans and/or restrictions. Wednesday through Saturday...Once the low pressure area travels far enough eastward, gradients will relax and pressure will slowly begin to increase over the region. Expect a weak warming trend and more diurnal fluctuations in the winds with afternoon breezes generally between 15 and 20 mph. In addition, watch for moisture to sneak into eastern Arizona from New Mexico towards the end of next week, creating a chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop. This will likely be relegated to Apache County with the best chances for rain in the White Mountains. && .AVIATION...Saturday 15/18Z through Sunday 16/18Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds SW10-15g20-25kts from 19Z-02Z, otherwise variable less than 10 kts. OUTLOOK...Sunday 16/18Z through Tuesday 18/18Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds S-Sw15-25g30-35kts from 18Z-02Z each day and decreasing to less than 10kts overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Hot and dry today, temperatures drop around 5 degrees on Sunday. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph for today, increasing to 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, on Sunday. Areas of near-critical fire weather conditions across northwestern Arizona on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Dry and windy on Monday, with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph gusting 30 to 40 mph. A decrease in temperatures Monday results in a slight increase in RH, especially over the high terrain. Near-critical fire weather conditions are likely along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Temperatures remain near to below average through Wednesday with breezy southwest winds each day, 10 to 20 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR/Mazon AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...MCT/Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff