725
FXUS65 KFGZ 130403
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
903 PM MST Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures, even for June, are in the forecast
the next couple of days. Some relief from the heat arrives Thursday
evening into Friday along with a chance for light rain showers
and a few thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts will be minimal
with dry lightning possible. Dry, warm, and breezy conditions
return by the weekend, with a slight cooling trend early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...A warm night across the region with many places still
well into the 70s to 80s. Things will continue to cool off this
evening with little to no clouds around most of the night.
Moisture in the form of clouds can be seen making its way
northward through southern Arizona this evening, and should make
its way into our region by as early as tomorrow morning. Aside
from that, expect it to remain quiet through the rest of the night
as the winds have already started to drop off and should become
light and variable through much of the region.

Updated grids to better reflect the isolated/dry thunder potential
later tomorrow afternoon and evening. Otherwise, everything looks
to be in good shape!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /354 PM MST/...Hot temperatures continue today with strong high
pressure in place (500mb height 593-595 dam). Highs today are
going to top out at 10-15 degrees above mid-June averages. An
Excessive Heat Warning is in effect below 4000 feet in Coconino
and Yavapai counties. A closed low centered off the coast of San
Diego is moving slowly eastward. Pressure gradients between these
2 systems are tightening, and breezy southwest winds are the
result. Gusts in the 20-30 mph range are being observed at 1 PM.

Thursday and Friday - the closed low will move into southern
California by Thursday afternoon and western Arizona by sunrise
Friday. The low will open up and move into Colorado by Friday
afternoon. We will see some increasing mid and high level
cloudiness as early as sunrise Thursday, continuing to increase
through the day. There will be a chance of virga/sprinkles from
around Flagstaff westward through the afternoon, but forecast CAPE
values are very low so the risk of thunderstorms should be
minimal until the low pressure center moves closer to the area.
The extra clouds could knock temperatures down a bit and allow for
an early end to the Excessive Heat Warning, but will make that
call tomorrow. The best lift and slightly deeper moisture move up
across Yavapai/Coconino counties Thursday night with precip
chances 30-40%. Only very light amounts of less than 0.10" are
anticipated. Lightning chances go up slightly due to cooling
aloft, but without daytime heating the instability and lightning
risk remain low overnight. On Friday - the higher rain chances
(30-60%) shift into northeast Arizona. With daytime heating, the
chance of lightning goes up which poses a threat of new wildfire
starts, again mainly in northeast Arizona. Rain chances end Friday
evening near the four corners.

Saturday through Tuesday - temperatures rebound briefly on
Saturday as the low departs eastward. Highs will be 7-12 degrees
above normal. From Sunday onward, models are in agreement that a
large trough will set up over the northwest US, pushing the ridge
well south of our area. This will bring a gradual cooling trend to
the region, with highs possibly even a few degrees cooler than
normal by early next week. Unfortunately, we will be on the windy
southern end of the trough with gusts in the 30-40 mph range in
the forecast Sunday and Monday - possibly leading to a period of
critical fire weather so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 13/06Z through Friday 14/06Z...Mainly VFR
with increasing cloud cover through Thursday. Light and variable
winds through 16Z-17Z, then S-SW winds increase to 15-25 kts. ISO
SHRA/TS after 18Z, increasing after 00Z mainly along and east of
KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line.

OUTLOOK...Friday 14/06Z through Sunday 16/06Z...Mainly VFR
expected. ISO-SCT SHRA with ISO TS, mainly east of a KPGA-KINW-
KSOW line through 00Z/Sat. Brief MVFR or lower possible in heavy
showers. W-SW winds 10-20 kts Friday, then SW 15-25 kts Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Hot temperatures will continue
Thursday before slightly cooling off on Friday. Chances for
rain/thunderstorms Thursday afternoon across Yavapai & Coconino
Counties, becoming more focused across E Arizona on Friday. Dry
lightning and gusty/erratic winds possible near storms. Southwest
winds 15-25 mph Thursday becoming more westerly 10-20 mph Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Above normal temperature will continue
through Sunday, with cooler conditions returning Monday. Mainly dry
conditions with gusty, southwest winds and afternoon RH values 5-15%
daily. Near critical fire weather conditions likely over the weekend
and continuing into next week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/JJ
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff