396
FXUS65 KFGZ 161642
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
942 AM MST Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest
winds to create critical fire weather conditions both today and
Monday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal today through
Wednesday, before warming again late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A deepening trough over the northwestern United
States will affect our area through at least Tuesday. The primary
impacts will be dry and windy conditions, as well as with somewhat
cooler temperatures. The windiest days will be ahead of the trough
axis, today and especially Monday. Winds decrease after that, but
will stay breezy through at least Thursday, as remnants of the
trough linger over the region.

Current RFW products look fine, some zones are marginal at best, we
will not make changes this morning. The bottom line is that it has
not rained in weeks and any increase in wind speeds combined with
our dry boundary layer will lead to dangerous FWX conditions.

There is now a distinct possibility that sustained southerly or
southwesterly flow, along with a building ridge late this week, will
push the Monsoon boundary layer into Arizona by next weekend. This
could lead to an outbreak of high-based thunderstorms and hot
temperatures, not a good recipe, stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 16/12Z through Monday 17/12Z...VFR conditions
with daytime winds SW 15-25 kts with gusts 25-35 kts, becoming
light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 17/12Z through Wednesday 19/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds SW 20-30 kts with gusts 30-40 kts on Monday, subsiding to
10-15 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Warm, very dry, and windy. A Red
Flag Warning has been issued for much of northern Arizona on both
afternoons. Daytime southwest winds 15-25, with gusts from 30-40
mph. Afternoon minimum RH values 5-15%.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry and breezy conditions with seasonable
temperatures. Daytime winds south through southwest 10-20 mph with
gusts around 25 mph each day. Afternoon minimum RH values 10-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /Noon MDT/ this morning to 8 PM MST
/9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>109-112-115-140.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /Noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
Monday for AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff