870
FXUS65 KFGZ 170352
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
852 PM MST Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty southwest winds continue overnight and into
Tuesday, although not as strong as what was seen Monday afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue mainly over Navajo and
Apache counties through Tuesday morning. Then, mostly dry, cool, and
breezy weather for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Drier air has recently moved through the Phoenix
metro area and across I-17, but the airmass remains fairly moist to
the east of that. Winds speeds have decreased, but definitely not
decoupled yet. This could cause some problems for our overnight
lows, but it is too early to make that call and we won`t make an
update.

The main trough finally ejects later tonight and into Tuesday
morning. There could be some convective enhancement after Midnight
MST and through mid-morning Tuesday over the eastern zones, as the
trough axis comes through. This is covered in the current PoP
schemes.

We still expect breezy southwest winds tomorrow. But the axis of
stronger winds slides east and mixing will not be as intense as the
colder and dry air moves in. The current plan is to not have another
NPW, but it could get close in a few locations.

All in all, the forecast is in food shape. Big story is a real taste
of fall this week, including some freezing temperatures in the high
country, summer is fading.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 17/00Z through Wednesday 18/00Z...Isolated to
scattered SHRA/TSRA are forecast to persist east of a KPAN-KFLG-
KOV7 line through around 02Z, then confined east of a KPAN-KRQE
line through around 15Z Tuesday morning. MVFR conditions and hail
are possible with any stronger storms that develop. Outside of
storms, expect southwest winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts.
Wind speeds decreasing after 02Z but remaining elevated at 10-20
kts overnight. Winds increase again after 16Z, becoming southwest
15-25 kts gusting 25-35 kts. There is a 30% chance that some
localized MVFR cigs will develop over high terrain areas including
KGCN/KFLG between 06Z and 15Z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 18/00Z through Friday 20/00Z...VFR conditions
expected. On Wednesday and thursday, south-southwest winds at
10-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday morning, mainly east of a
Payson to Kayenta line. Drier weather will arrive Tuesday afternoon.
South to southwest winds at 10-20 mph will persist tonight through
Tuesday, with gusts of 25-35 mph during the afternoon. Southwest
gusts to 20-30 mph for Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Remaining cool, breezy and mostly dry.
Another low pressure system could bring a few showers to northwest
Arizona late Thursday or Friday. Look for southwest winds at 10-20
mph gusting to 30 mph Thursday and Friday, becoming light northerly
by Saturday for most areas.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
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