219
FXUS65 KFGZ 210548
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1048 PM MST Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving across Arizona will
bring cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and chances for showers
and thunderstorms tonight through Saturday. Warmer and drier
weather is expected to return for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A compact upper low now crossing the Lower Colorado
River will eject ENE to the Four Corners by this time on Saturday.
Expect steepening lapse rates and increasing moisture overnight as
the low moves through. This will be enough for scattered showers and
thunderstorms, as well as some areas of stratiform precipitation in
the dynamic eastern portion of the low. The cold core of low will
also drop snow levels to 10k feet or so, any precipitation in the
Flagstaff area will fall as snow over the San Francisco Peaks.

Activity with this system is most likely near, north and northwest
of the core of the low. During the day Saturday, drier and more
subsident air will slowly trickle in from the northwest, with
activity ending by evening.

Dry and warming after that, with light winds and above normal
temperatures for much of next week. Current PoP schemes look fine
and no short term updates are needed.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 21/06Z through Sunday 22/06Z...Scattered
-SHRA/-TSRA with localized/brief MVFR conditions along/west of
a KPRC-KFLG-KPGA line overnight with chances gradually increasing
and spreading eastward through 18Z. By Saturday afternoon, the
best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be along/north of
I-40. Precipitation ends area wide by around 00Z. West to northwest
winds 10-20 kts Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 22/06Z through Tuesday 24/06Z...Dry with VFR
conditions. Variable winds mostly 10 kts or less for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...An area of low pressure
will deliver chances for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday
afternoon. Dry and warmer weather will move in on Sunday. Look for
west-northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph on Saturday followed by
northerly winds at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
through Wednesday. Light and variable winds under 10 mph are
forecast for Monday with northerly winds at 10-20 mph expected to
develop on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff