Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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377 FXUS65 KFGZ 232225 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 325 PM MST Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, breezy weather continues across northern Arizona through Saturday with the strongest winds and near critical fire weather conditions expected Friday. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend will arrive by Sunday, remaining through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A trough to our north continues moving eastward today and overnight. This trough will help a more elongated shortwave trough progress across the region Friday and Saturday. The area is expect to remain dry with precipitation well north of Arizona. Breezy southwesterlies are expected to strengthen tomorrow afternoon with this next system. Afternoon gusts of 30 to 40 mph will impact much of northern Arizona. Near critical fire weather is in the forecast, but conditions are just below Red Flag Warning criteria with fuels borderline as well. Regardless, practice extra caution during this windy period. Downwind/northeast locations mainly along the Mogollon Rim will remain a bit breezy overnight. The strongest winds will shift eastward on Saturday and are anticipated to be a bit lighter than Friday. Pressure gradients will gradually relax Saturday evening with more zonal, westerly flow. However, this will be short lived with a ridge on the way. Sunday Onward...The aforementioned trough will shift eastward on Sunday and will be rapidly replaced by high pressure. Models are in good agreement at this time that a upper-level ridge will begin building over western CONUS, persisting through much of next week. Sunny to mostly sunny skies and the climbing pressure will allow temperatures to follow suit. Expect temperatures near to just above average on Sunday with afternoon highs 5 to 8 degrees above normal next week. && .AVIATION...Thursday 23/18Z through Friday 24/18Z...MVFR conditions possible in HZ/FU in vicinity of KCMR/KFLG as well as BLDU near KINW. VFR conditions otherwise expected. Winds SW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts before 03Z, then subsiding to 10 kts or less. OUTLOOK...Friday 24/18Z through Sunday 26/18Z...Stronger SW winds 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts expected on Friday. Winds become more WSW on Saturday at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Local areas of HZ/FU possible as well as BLDU near and north of KINW. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...Dry and breezy weather will continue into the coming weekend. Near critical fire weather conditions will develop Friday and Saturday afternoon across the Little Colorado River Valley. Minimum humidity each day will range from 10-20% with the strongest winds gusting to 40 mph on Friday. Sunday through Tuesday...Expect a warming and drying trend through early next week while wind speeds decrease. Daytime humidity will drop to 5-15% with west to southwest winds around 10-20 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Mazon AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...MCT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff