106
FXUS65 KFGZ 241025
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
325 AM MST Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern
Arizona through Saturday. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming
trend will arrive by Sunday, remaining through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad and longer-wave trough to our north will have
one last s/wv move through it today and Saturday, before the pattern
breaks apart and shifts east.

This s/wv will deliver windy conditions to our area today and into
Saturday, with the axis of higher winds shifting into the eastern
CWA by Saturday, The timing has changed subtly, allowing for less
wind speeds today and then the stronger winds aloft moving through
Arizona overnight, mixing out again to the east Saturday. We were
already looking at borderline Wind Advisory criteria today, along
with near Critical Fire Weather conditions east of Flagstaff. With
the timing change, we will definitely avoid and headlines today, but
may have to consider at least a wind product for our eastern zones
on Saturday.

After Saturday, higher hghts move into the southwestern U.S. with
decreasing gradients. As a result, expect a solid warming trend next
week, with less wind and continued dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 24/12Z through Saturday 25/12Z....MVFR conditions
possible in HZ/FU in vicinity of KCMR, otherwise VFR. Winds S/SW
10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts before 03Z, then subsiding to 5-10
kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 25/12Z through Monday 27/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds SW winds 15-20 kts, gusting 20-30 kts on Saturday, then
becoming W 5-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Dry conditions with cooler
than normal temperatures. Near-critical fire weather conditions
expected today and Saturday across the Little Colorado River Valley.
Winds southwest 15-25 mph, with gusts 25-35 mph each afternoon.
Minimum afternoon RH values 10-20%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warming temperatures and continued dry
conditions. Winds primarily southwest 10-20 mph each day. Minimum
afternoon RH values 5-15%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff