166
FXUS65 KFGZ 212053
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
153 PM MST Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Fair skies, seasonable temperatures, and periods of
gusty southwest winds will continue through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As the trough that recently affected Arizona now
heads into the Midwest, dry westerly flow remains in its wake.
Mild temperatures, sunny skies, and relatively light winds are
the implications for our area. Although the weather is quiet,
several prescribed fires in the Flagstaff area either occurring
now or planned for this week will create areas of smoke and haze.
Those sensitive to poor air quality should exercise caution and
avoid time outdoors in affected locations. Smoke settles near the
surface after dark, so keep those windows shut to prevent the
pervasive smell of smoke from entering your home.

A kink in the upper level flow will bring an increase in
southwest winds Thursday through Saturday. Gusts at the surface
past 30 mph are forecast along and north of the Mogollon Rim each
day through this period. Along with the continued dry air,
critical fire weather conditions are possible in some areas.

Global model guidance points to stronger ridging to develop over
the Southwest next week. As a result, warmer temperatures are
increasingly likely in Arizona. Just a reminder, we are headed
into what is normally the hottest and driest time of year. With
the lack of cloud cover and high sun angle, extreme UV index
levels are a regular occurrence. Stay safe!

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 21/18Z through Wednesday 22/18Z...Occasional
MVFR conditions possible in vicinity of KFLG/KCMR from HZ/FU,
otherwise VFR. Winds W/SW around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts
before 02Z, then becoming light and variable.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 22/18Z through Friday 24/18Z...Occasional
MVFR conditions possible in vicinity of KFLG/KCMR from HZ/FU,
otherwise VFR. Winds SW 10-20 kts, gusting 20-30 kts each day from
around 17Z to around 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Thursday...Dry conditions with mild
temperatures. West/southwest winds 10-20 mph, becoming southwest on
Wednesday. Winds will increase on Thursday with a few spots
approaching critical fire weather conditions. Afternoon minimum RH
values 8-18%.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling
temperatures through Saturday. Gusty southwest winds with gusts 30-
40 mph during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday, with lighter
winds returning by Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20 percent expected
each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff