281
FXUS65 KFGZ 010522
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1022 PM MST Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and
breezy afternoon winds will continue to be the main weather
story.

&&

.UPDATE...Another round of tranquil weather conditions is expected
for tonight with near average temperatures and little to no wind.
Even though sky coverage remains clear, radar is "active",
currently picking up on the bird migration over northern Arizona.

Daytime temperatures for Saturday are forecast to be quite
similar compared to this afternoon`s with Flagstaff reaching 80
degrees again. Afternoon southwest winds will be a bit more
enhanced as a weak, upper-level trough begins to push through from
the west. Expect widespread gusts of 20-30 mph during this time.
Conditions remain dry with minimal cloud cover and afternoon
humidity of 5-15%.

The current forecast remains on track with no changes needed at
this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /407 PM MST/...A zonal flow continues to bring warm
temperatures and dry conditions to northern Arizona. There are a
few areas with high-level clouds currently, mostly along the
higher terrain. The chances for showers in these areas is not
zero, but the likely scenario for falling precipitation will be in
the form of virga - rain that evaporates before reaching the
ground. Afternoon highs today were expected to reach 2-10 degrees
above normal, with slightly cooler conditions moving in over the
weekend.

A week disturbance will sweep across the state Saturday and Sunday,
elevating afternoon winds and dropping afternoon highs by a few
degrees. Look for southwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting 20-30 mph on
Saturday. Winds look to slightly decrease and shift more westerly
for Sunday. There does not appear to be any moisture that will
reach our CWA out of this disturbance, so minimum RH values will
continue to be in the single digits - upper teens.

Next week we`ll begin to see high pressure set up over the region,
quickly warming temperatures up across the state. Nearly right on
time to the start of the Meteorological Summer, afternoon
temperatures will be in the 80s for many areas above 6000` and
90s/100s for lower elevation areas. As we start to quickly reach
these hotter conditions, be sure to limit your time outdoors, seek
shade often, and always stay hydrated! Also during this warming
period, model guidance is suggesting the formation of a low off
the Baja of California Coast. Depending on how well this pattern
holds, there will be the potential for moisture to be funneled
into our region by the end of next week...more on that later.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 01/06Z through Sunday 02/06Z...Look for VFR
conditions. Light winds overnight becoming southwest at 10-20 kts
with a few gusts to 30 kts Saturday afternoon. Winds diminishing
after sunset.


OUTLOOK...Sunday 02/06Z through Tuesday 04/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Afternoon southwest winds a 10-20 kts gusting 20-30
kts each day. Light and variable winds in the overnight and early
morning periods.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Look for dry and warm
conditions to continue. Daytime humidity will drop to 5-15%.
Southwest winds each day around 10-20 mph. A few gusts to 30 mph on
Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm and dry weather will continue.
Southwesterly winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon. Minimum humidity
ranging from 5-15% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff