713
FXUS65 KFGZ 122149
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
250 PM MST Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue into early next
week. Moisture will be sparse, with only isolated or scattered
activity through Monday. A gradual uptick in moisture is forecast
during the course of next week, with a potential for very wet
conditions by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Just enough moisture this afternoon, mainly under a
weak cap at 480mb, has allowed for limited shower development. There
has even been a few lightning strikes, mostly around the White Mtns.
Steering flow is driving this activity southward, where a few more
pop up showers may develop into the evening, as there is better
moisture south of the Mogollon Rim. The air mass to the north is
very dry and additional development is not likely.

High pressure over the northern Baja will make one final push
northward on Sunday, bringing another very warm and mostly dry day.
The overall pattern on Sunday will be similar to today, not very
much, but not nothing.

After that, the ridge begins to get a bit diffuse and slowly shift
eastward into next week, in response to s/wv energy moving through
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. This will initiate some
cooling in the mid-levels early next week as the high relocates.
Additionally, mid-level flow will turn easterly and northeasterly.
This will start to allow outflows from SE AZ/SW NM to work moisture
back west and north, along with boundary layer flow continuing over
the Gulf of California. We expect a slow ramp up of shower activity
as a result, today and Sunday will be the quietest days.

By the middle of next week, a favorable high position and an
easterly wave will bring a more organized moisture transport into
the state, along with synoptic lift. The high PoPs from Wednesday
onward look good.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 12/18Z through Sunday 13/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line 20Z to
02Z. West to northwest winds at 5-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts
through around 03Z then decreasing to 10 kts or less overnight.
Gusty and erratic outflow winds expected near any storms.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 13/18Z through Tuesday 15/18Z...VFR conditions
forecast. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA along/south of a
KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line on Sunday afternoon and evening, then
along/south of a KGCN- KRQE line Monday. West to northwest winds
10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts each day with light and variable winds
during the overnight periods. Gusty and erratic outflow winds
expected near any storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday...Hot and mostly dry
through Sunday, with a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday. West through northwest afternoon winds at 10-15 mph
with gusts up to 20 mph. Minimum RH of 5-10% is forecast north of
the Mogollon Rim, 10-20% along and south of the Rim each day. Low
chances (10-30%) for showers and thunderstorms are forecast along
the higher terrain from Flagstaff south and east today and Sunday,
increasing to 30-50% Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Slowly increasing moisture and
thunderstorm chances with a slight cooling trend. The best chances
for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday will be over the
higher terrain along and south of the I-40 corridor, spreading north
to include most of northern Arizona by Thursday. Minimum RH values
will be between 10-20% Tuesday increasing to 15-30% by Thursday.
Winds mainly west at 10-15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds can be
expected near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff