427
FNUS75 KFGZ 170551
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Sayer Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1051 PM MST Sun Jun 16 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2300 MST on June 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Winds 5-10 mph out of the southwest will continue overnight before
winds increase out of the southwest throughout Monday. Look for sustained speeds
15-25 mph, gusting up to 45 mph. Winds will gradually decrease after 5 PM MST, but still
remain near 10-15 mph through 11 PM MST. Tuesday, expect southwest winds 5-15 mph gusting near
25 mph throughout the afternoon. Minimum RH values will be near 15% each afternoon with
overnight recoveries around 40-55%.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....45-50 degrees.
Max humidity........40-45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Increasing after 5 AM MST.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......11.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 knots.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....83-87 degrees.
Min humidity........10-15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 45 mph. Winds gradually decreasing after 5 PM MST.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......3455.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 knots increasing to 30 to
                    35 knots in the late morning and afternoon.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....42-48 degrees.
Max humidity........50-55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 40 mph decreasing to around 5-10 mph
                    overnight.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......10.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10
                    knots in the late evening and overnight.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....80-85 degrees.
Min humidity........12-18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts near 20 mph.
                    Winds decreasing after 5 PM MST.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......2055.
Mixing height.......10800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 knots increasing to around
                    20 knots late in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...KONIECZNY
Requested by...Andrew Giralt
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416276.0/FGZ
.DELDT 06/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL andrewgiralt714@gmail.com,andrew.giralt@usda.gov