420
FNUS75 KFGZ 261345
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Blue Bell Fire...Forest Service
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
645 AM MST Wed Jun 26 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MST on June 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again
expected to develop this afternoon. With such light general winds
right now, afternoon winds will become outflow dominated by nearby
storms. The increase in moisture allowing for storms to develop
will continue to allow afternoon RHs to remain elevated. Despite
the developing clouds this afternoon, sunny to mostly sunny skies
this morning should allow for quick warming with highs possibly
nearing the upper 90s before clouds can start limiting heating.

Tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity will linger into the
first part of the evening, with activity decreasing overtime. Good
overnight RH recovery expected. Winds will be light and variable.

Thursday will be notably different than the past several days.
Overall drier weather is expected with with breezy winds in the
afternoon: winds could gust as high as 30 mph. An isolated shower
or thunderstorm in the afternoon can not be totally ruled out
though.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny to partly cloudy in the morning.
                    Becoming partly to mostly cloudy in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    late in the morning. Winds will become outflow
                    dominated in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Clearing Index......654.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 0 to 5 knots shifting to the west
                    late in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......2.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 knots.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly Sunny, becoming partly cloudy in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 97.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......1334.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 knots shifting to the southwest
                    around 15 knots in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...ROAKES
Requested by...Forest Service
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416659.2/FGZ
.DELDT 06/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL micheal.williams@usda.gov