Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
812 FXUS63 KFSD 081707 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers will be possible through the MO River corridor today. Any precipitation amounts would be very light. - Pleasant with seasonable temperatures for Sunday and Monday. It will be dry both days. - Returning chances for showers and thunderstorms for Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures are then forecasted to rise to above seasonal norms for the middle and end of next week as upper level ridging slowly builds across the western CONUS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A diffuse frontal boundary and an upper level shortwave has been producing a band of showers across the eastern portions of the CWA early this morning. This activity is expected to exit the area by 12Z. Otherwise, weak high pressure begins to build into the region today, and with cooling 850 mb temperatures, highs will be a touch lower than yesterday - topping out in the lower to mid 70s. Although it will be mostly dry, another shortwave will track through northern NE through the day. This in conjunction with upper level lift provided by a jet oriented NW to SE over the Northern Plains, and developing midlevel frontogenesis, may trigger a few showers along the MO River corridor and southward today. Even so, any precipitation amounts would be light with soundings indicating dry air in the low levels. Thunderstorms are not expected with instability residing well to our south. Any isolated showers would end by early this evening, leading to a cool night tonight with seasonably cool lows - in the lower to mid 50s. Stronger high pressure builds across the region for Sunday and Monday. This will lead to a pleasant couple of days with highs in the 70s to near 80. Winds are expected to be relatively light through the period, although somewhat breezy west of Interstate 29 on Monday afternoon in a tightening surface pressure gradient. Related to this, models are in good agreement on a surface trough developing over the western High Plains during the day on Monday. This trough will push to the east on Monday night into Tuesday, pulling a cold front through our area by mid day on Tuesday. With that, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area on Monday night into early Tuesday - with increasing mid/lower level theta e advection related to a low level jet oriented ahead of the eastward tracking trough. Current models would indicate only weak instability and shear over our area during this time frame, so severe storms are not expected. After that, models indicate the upper level pattern transitioning to a more zonal flow through midweek, then trending toward upper level ridging by the end of the week. With these trends, temperatures will warm back to above normal through much of the remainder of the week, with highs well into the 80s. There will be periodic shower and thunderstorm chances, especially for midweek, as a series of shortwaves traverse the zonal upper level flow. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail this TAF cycle. Aside from some scattered showers along the MO River Valley early this afternoon, should see dry conditions persist for the remainder of the period. Otherwise, look for N/NE winds to become light and variable overnight, with direction turning N/NW late Sunday morning. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...SST