Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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110 FXUS63 KFSD 122331 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 631 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few more hours of hot conditions, with an additional round of rain possible (30%) late this afternoon east of I-29. While chances are low, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may develop into the evening hours, with up to 2 inch hail and gusts up to 70 mph possible. - Another round of scattered light showers and thunderstorms move across the region during the late overnight hours into Thursday morning, with afternoon temperatures again in the 80s. - Near to above normal temperatures will continue, with daily highs expected to peak the upper 70s to 80s. - Confidence continues to increase in more widespread rain chances on Saturday, with periodic chances for additional rain continuing into the early parts of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 While we had scattered to areas of showers and thunderstorms earlier, temperatures have had no problems rebounding back up into the mid to upper 80s across the region. This is occurring as temperatures aloft continue to exceed the 90th percentile of climatology, so with a couple hours left of sunshine, we could still see areas reach up into the lower 90s before the afternoon is over. While the earlier thunderstorms were caused by the prefrontal trough, the cold front itself is still poised to move through the area later this afternoon into the evening hours. However, the front itself does not look to create enough lift to overcome the 50-100 J/kg of convective inhibition (CIN) created by the warm-air advection aloft. So, while we would have 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE and 45 to 50 knots of bulk shear available to any storm that is able to break through the cap, additional severe thunderstorm development appears unlikely as the cap is expected to remain in place. As we cooldown to our cross over temperatures tonight, we may see some patchy fog develop in low-lying areas and river valleys, but overall widespread fog is not currently expected. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable tonight, with overnight low temperatures largely in the 60s expected. A weak shortwave moves across the region late overnight into the morning hours, but as dewpoints drop down in the 50s and low MUCAPE values of a 100-300 J/kg, only expecting light rain before the showers exit off to our east. Above normal temperatures in the lower to upper 80s are still expected for Thursday, as the cold front largely lowered our dewpoints. Upper level ridging occurs off to our west overnight into Friday, with a surface high pressure sliding down from Canada during the early morning hours. This will keep us closer to our normal temperatures, in the lower to mid 80s. Upper level ridging breaks down throughout the day as a potent shortwave ejects onto the central plains from the rockies, with the first of many shortwaves moving across the area by Friday evening. SPC has issued a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms. As additional waves move overhead, periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the day on Saturday, before ending on Sunday morning. The pattern remains active into the beginning of next week as southwesterly flow aloft continues due to a strong upper level ridge expected to develop along the east coast. This sets us up to potentially see periodic chances for rain as numerous shortwaves move across the region, with the inverted trough from a surface low pressure system also focusing chances for rain across the region. Model solutions have similar ideas, but do vary in their placement of warmest temperatures and highest rainfall chances, so have left the NBM in place given the uncertainties. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this evening across the area. As of 12.23z, storms are located over KSUX and across northwestern IA - have included at KSUX for a couple hours (through 13.02z). Additional storms are on-going further to the north in northeastern SD and central MN. Will be watching this activity as it drops to the southeast through the evening. Activity through the evening and into tonight could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, another round of showers and storms may develop late tonight into early Thursday morning. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible with any stronger storm. Confidence is too low in the other convection chances to include mention at any site for now. Outside of convection, VFR conditions prevail. Breezy south to southeasterly winds become light and somewhat variable overnight, which could lead to patchy fog in low lying areas. Winds out of the north to northeast tomorrow morning and may gust around 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...APT AVIATION...SG