856
FXUS63 KFSD 060340
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1040 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another breezy day expected Thursday with winds approaching
advisory levels.

- Scattered showers return late Friday into Saturday morning, though
low probabilities (30-40%) for anything more than 0.10" of rain.

- Pattern into next week continues to suggest quiet weather and near
to perhaps even slightly below normal temperatures well into next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

THIS AFTERNOON:  Persistent area of transverse banding continues to
move eastward this afternoon thanks in part to a nearly 75 knot 500
mb westerly flow moving through the area (sampled from KFSD VWP).
In fact, flow at 700, 500, and 300 mb across the Dakotas is
sitting well outside the 30 year climatology for early June, and
sitting at or very near the max recorded winds for June 6th.
Generally precipitation has been very light this afternoon with
just traces of rain thank to the high based and dry subcloud
layer. Further south, a fine area of CU have developed along a
cold front near the Highway 20 corridor. Given realization of
convective temps this afternoon, cannot rule out an isolated
storm developing. This activity may be completely sheared off
given strong flow along and weaker low-lvl flow. Elsewhere,
winds continue to struggle as the mid-lvl clouds are not
allowing us to reach full mixing potential. Will keep the
advisory going, in coordination with neighbors, but the reality
is that winds may only very briefly meet criteria in the next
1-3 hours.

TONIGHT: A very narrow potential for a few diurnal CU or scattered
showers may also exist over the Red River/Minnesota Valley early
this evening, but this activity should also weaken.  Winds will
dissipate fairly quickly overnight with temperatures falling into
the 50s by Thursday morning.

THURSDAY:  Another breezy to perhaps windy day is likely on Thursday
as northwest flow continues and the surface pressure gradient
remains strong.  Mixing upwards of 750 mb will push wind gusts
towards the 40 to 45 mph range.  Will not issue an advisory at this
time and allow later shifts to look deeper on if we can truly reach
the depth of mixing models suggest.   Highs will fall below normal
in most locations.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:  Slightly better agreement for Friday into Saturday
with today`s model guidance.  A subtle shortwave moves through the
northwest flow late Friday, Likely bringing a period of scattered
showers to most areas overnight.  Highs on Friday climb near the 80
degree mark. Moisture remains fairly limited due to the northwest
flow, which supports the ensemble ideas that the probability of
>0.10" of QPF is only around 30 to 40 percent.  Rain chances move
southeast Saturday morning, and should leave a dry but cooler
forecast in place.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Outside of yet another subtle shortwave moving
through Tuesday, much of next week remains dry across the Northern
Plains, thanks to lingering Great Lakes troughing during the first
half of the week, and then amplifying mid-lvl ridging moving east
into the Plains for the second half of the week.  Temperatures
remain near to slightly below normal through Tuesday, with increased
confidence in highs above normal into the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Northwest winds overnight may
gust around 20 knots; however, LLWS is possible across the area
when winds are lighter with no gusts. This is largely driven by
speed difference, although direction shift of 20-30 degrees is
possible with the LLJ. Winds increase quickly after daybreak
Thursday, with gusts around 35 knots by mid morning. Some gusts
may approach 40 knots into the afternoon. Winds taper off
around/after sunset, with gusts likely to fall off quickly after
around 07.01-02z. Could again see some LLWS Thursday night, but
confidence is too low to include at this time.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...SG