Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
152 FXUS63 KFSD 082320 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 620 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant conditions prevail Sunday and Monday with seasonable temperatures. - Periodic chances for showers and storms return Monday evening and continue through much of the week. Temperatures during this time will gradually rise to/above seasonal norms as upper level ridging builds across the western CONUS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 CURRENT THROUGH MONDAY: Outside of a few isolated showers along the MO River Valley this morning, have seen largely dry conditions prevail across the region. Latest observations also show temperatures in the lower 70s, with N/NE winds gusting up to 20 MPH in areas east of I-29. Gusts quickly diminish near sunset, with light and variable winds then forecast to prevail overnight as temperatures fall into the lower 50s. Sfc high pressure slides overhead Sunday, keeping conditions dry across the region through Monday afternoon. Highs will be a touch warmer during this time, as temperatures rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Winds should also remain relatively light, although somewhat breezy west of I-29 Monday afternoon as the SPG tightens. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH BEYOND: Upper level trough and sfc cold front push eastward across the Northern Plains Monday evening, causing precipitation chances to return to the forecast. Guidance remains in fairly decent agreement that showers/storms will develop by midnight Monday and continue through Tuesday afternoon. Still not seeing much in the way of shear and instability though, which should keep the overall threat for severe weather low. Nonetheless, will continue to monitor trends in the coming days. Flow turns quasi-zonal in the wake of the aforementioned trough, with multiple shortwaves progged to take aim at the region for the remainder of the week. The first expected to occur Wednesday afternoon/evening, followed by another round of showers/storms Thursday afternoon. That being said, quite a bit of variability still exists to put too much confidence behind any one solution. Do, however, think it`s worth noting that SPC`s Latest Day 5 Outlook does have portions of our area outlined in a 15% chance for severe weather. In regard to temperatures, have afternoon highs gradually rising into the mid 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday/Thursday. Otherwise, expect upper level ridging to build across the western CONUS by the end of the week. This should result in a brief lull in activity across our area, with temperatures remaining at/above seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions expected for the period. Scattered clouds between 11K and 15K feet will decrease to mostly clear overnight. Winds will become light and variable through mid-morning Sunday. Then, they will be northerly between 5-10 kts. Over southwestern Minnesota, winds will increase slightly to between 10-15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts for a few hours after noon. Winds across the region again become light and variable Sunday night. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SST AVIATION...AJP