Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
356 FXUS63 KFSD 061731 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds with gusts up into the lower 40s possible. Strongest gusts are expected along the Buffalo Ridge given their elevated elevation. - Scattered showers return Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Probabilities for 0.10" of rain remain below 40%. - Chances for above normal temperatures return late next week as a ridge of high pressure builds across the south. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Early morning satellite imagery shows clear skies across our area, with a surface high pressure sliding southeastwards off to our west. With a strong surface low pressure remaining well off to our northeast, the surface pressure gradient between these two features remains elevated today. While winds during the remaining early morning hours will remain in the teens, as the inversion weakens throughout the rest of the morning hours after sunrise, we will again see stronger winds aloft brought down to the surface. Currently expecting wind gusts of 35 mph up into the lower 40s, though if we are more mixy than currently expected winds could end up above 45 mph. While the ensemble situational awareness tables (ESATs) again shows winds at 850mb at the 90th percentile of climatology for today, models are showing that 850mb winds do not mix down through the 925mb layer...so it seems the winds will purely be based on the surface pressure gradient. Have thus kept winds just shy of advisory level, but day shift will need to monitor the observations to see if an advisory is needed. Temperatures in the lower 70s are expected across SW MN, warming up into the lower 80s for areas along the Missouri River Valley. Friday will see the surface high pressure expand into a ridge as it traverse the region eastwards, which will swing the winds around to become out of the southeast. As a weak surface low pressure develops quickly on the backside of the ridge, mid-level warm-air advection (WAA) develops as a weak shortwave moves across the region, resulting in scattered light showers possible along the Missouri River Valley throughout the day. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Chances for scattered light showers extend northwards overnight into Saturday as a weak mid- level low moves overhead. Probabilities for 0.10" of rain overnight remain below 40%, with highest chances along the SD/NE border. A surface high pressure dives southwards on Saturday, ending chances for rain by Saturday morning. The surface high will have brought slightly cooler temperatures along with it, resulting in afternoon highs for Saturday and Sunday expected to remain below average in the lower to upper 70s. Will likely see a shortwave at some point early next week resulting chances for rain, with models currently indicating this should happen Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise, models have continued to show a mid-level ridge expanding into the central plains mid- week, which will increase chances for above normal temperatures and increased chances for below normal precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail this TAF cycle, with breezy northwest winds still the main concern. Latest observations show gusts ranging between 35 to 50 MPH. Should see this continue for much of the afternoon, with gusts quickly diminishing near sunset. Direction then become light and variable overnight. Otherwise, look for shower and storm chances to return after daybreak Friday, a few of which may become strong to severe during the afternoon. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040- 053>056-060>062-066-067-071. MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098. IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...APT AVIATION...SST