856
FXUS63 KFSD 070339
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1039 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds expected to continue this afternoon,
  with gusts between 40 to 55 MPH possible.

- Scattered showers and storms return Friday, with a few
  capable of becoming strong to severe along the Missouri River
  during the afternoon/evening.

- Chances for above normal temperatures return late next week
  as a ridge of high pressure builds across the south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT: Breezy northwesterly winds continue
across the region, with latest observations showing sunny skies,
highs in the 70s, and gusts ranging between 40 to 50 MPH. Should see
these conditions continue through the late afternoon, with gusts
forecast to quickly subside near sunset. As such, believe the current
Wind Advisory remains in good shape, which is set to expire at 7 PM.
Otherwise, look for light and variable winds to prevail overnight
under clear skies, with lows falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

FRIDAY: Winds turn south/southeasterly Friday as sfc high pressure
expands into a ridge across our area, with highs forecast to rise
into the upper 70s to lower 80s. This will be short-lived though, as
a sfc low pressure quickly develops on the backside of the ridge.
WAA ahead of this feature will result in scattered showers and
storms across the region for most of the day, with a few strong to
severe storms possible along the MO River Valley during the evening.
While there is ample bulk shear in place (>40kt), overall
instability remains rather meager (<1000J/kg). Thus, believe quarter
size hail, damaging gusts between 50-60 MPH, and brief heavy
downpours would be the primary hazards. In regard to rainfall
totals, still looking at anywhere from a few hundredths to a tenth or
so.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Another sfc high pressure slides over the
region Saturday allowing dry conditions to prevail through the
weekend. Afternoon highs will be a touch cooler during this time,
with temperatures largely in the low to mid 70s under partly cloudy
skies. North/northwest winds will also remain fairly light, so get
outside and enjoy the weather if you can!

MONDAY AND BEYOND: Model consistency begins to wane heading into the
new week as a pronounced upper level low dives southeastward across
the Northern Plains. Still quite a bit of variability in place,
though the general consensus is that showers and storms will be
possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Don`t want to
speculate too much though, so will continue to leave model blend of
PoPs as is until confidence increases. Otherwise, should see largely
dry conditions and above normal temperatures prevail for the
remainder of the extended period as mid-level ridging expands across
the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Light winds begin
the TAF period and will remain light and variable through the
overnight hours. Winds turn southeasterly tomorrow morning with
speeds up to 5-15 knots with gusts up to 15 to 20 knots. Light
showers will move into the area by the late morning hours but dry
air in the low levels may prevent rain from reaching the surface. As
such, have kept any chance for rain limited to VCSH. Have also left
out any mention of thunder as any storms that develop during the
afternoon hours look to be mainly south of the Missouri River.
Trends will be monitored through the night. Dry conditions will
finish out the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...Meyers