993
FXUS63 KFSD 242245
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
545 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty westerly winds 30 to 50 mph continue through sunset.

- Memorial Day Weekend will feature periodic shower and
  thunderstorm chances although there will be more dry periods
  than wet. Seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the
  upper 60s and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Rest of Today: Vertically stacked low peeling northeastward
into Canada is grazing enough of our area with a tightened SPG
to allow for gusts approaching or exceeding 45 mph with the more
frequent gusts above this threshold near/west of the James
River and perhaps along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN. These winds
should be on the increase into the evening hours.

Tonight: Better influence from surface high pressure to the south by
overnight and thus winds should become light after dark. With mostly
clear skies, overnight lows should fall into the 40s. Dewpoint
depressions should remain spread enough to prevent fog issues but
with recent rainfall, would completely discount some very patchy
valley focused fog.

Saturday thru Monday: Southerly return flow reestablishes for the
daytime hours Saturday with some gusts out of the south in the 20-30
mph range. This will help push afternoon high temperatures near
seasonal normals in the 70s.

Next wave approaches quickly by Saturday night with synoptic forcing
aided by the right entrance region of upper level jet streak to our
north. Current vort lobe progs should drive the main MCS along the I-
80 corridor through Nebraska/Iowa with the northern edge of this
potentially into NW IA and more hit or miss activity north of that.
Instability remains fairly limited with lack of low level moisture
return and thus severe weather looks unlikely although machine
learning probabilities would suggest at least a very low end
potential south of I-90. A slightly larger concern would be if any
more impactful rain amounts were to sneak a bit further north, it
would impact an already very saturated NW IA and could exacerbate
ongoing flooding issues. At this time, QPF looks to remain less than
an inch for most with HREF PMM/LPMM showing potential for localized
pockets in the 1-2 inch range near the Hwy 20 corridor. This will
need to be monitored over the next 36 hours.

Another wave arrives for the second half of Sunday and looks to
focus another chance of precipitation along and especially south of
the MO River Valley, although a few more hit or miss showers may
occur further north along the mid level theta-e gradient.

No rest for the weary with another wave dropping out of the
northwest for Monday. Doesn`t look like a significant precipitation
event but still worthy of some light POPs. Perhaps some breezier NW
winds with push of 850 mb CAA. Afternoon high temperatures within a
few degrees of 70 degrees.

Overall not a washout by any means for the
holiday weekend but occasional rain chances and seasonable
temperatures.

Tuesday thru Thursday: Upper level northwest flow regime to start
the period with mid/upper level ridging pushing east by Wednesday
and Thursday. This will provide for warming temperatures back above
normal. Our next chance of thunderstorms also looks to arrive very
late in the period Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There will be a
small probability (20-30%) of showers or sprinkles north of
Interstate 90 on Saturday afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds
this evening will become light overnight. Winds then transition
to southerly on Saturday, gusting around 20 kts in the afternoon
and early evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040-050-
     052-053-057>059-063-064.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080-
     097.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kalin
AVIATION...