554
FXUS63 KFSD 262321
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
621 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening,
  spreading east from central SD into areas near and west of the
  I-29 corridor. Severe weather is not expected, but small hail
  and gusty winds may occur with stronger storms.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible near and east of
  a line from Huron to Beresford to Cherokee Monday afternoon.
  Severe weather is not expected, but when thunder roars, go
  indoors!

- Dry, seasonal conditions develop Monday night through
  Wednesday. Next moderate to high (>30%) chance for showers and
  thunderstorms comes Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

TONIGHT: Early this afternoon, temperatures have warmed into the 70s
with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and a broad cumulus field
draped across the region. Upstream scattered showers and storms will
track slowly east into eastern SD this evening and eventually into
southwest MN and portions of northwest IA overnight. With very weak
winds aloft, mid level lapse rates peaking at 7 C/km, and <1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, severe weather is unlikely, but small hail and gusts up to
50 mph cannot be ruled out. With the increased cloud cover overnight
and light northwest flow turning westerly, expect temperatures to
only fall to the 50s overnight.

MONDAY: Expect pleasant weather with highs in the 70s and occasional
nuisance rain, especially in the afternoon. Scattered showers may
linger near and east of the MN Buffalo Ridge Monday morning, but
more widespread chance for scattered showers and/or isolated weak
storms comes Monday afternoon east of a Huron to Beresford to
Cherokee line during the day. This resides with the increasing,
weakly unstable cumulus field developing as a northern stream
shortwave tracks southeast from central ND to southwest MN. Severe
weather is not expected with weak mid level flow and MLCAPE < 500
J/kg. High chance (>80%) of rainfall amounts being less than 0.10
inches. The greater impact Monday looks to be breezy northwest
winds. Gusts mixing down in the 20s to lower 30s will be common
Monday afternoon, but cold air advection behind the weak wave may
bring peak gusts of 30 to 40 mph near and east of I-29.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Little to no noteworthy weather
impacts with seasonal temperatures expected Monday night. Breezy
northwest wind and mild conditions again Tuesday. With a weak
shortwave sliding south through western MN, weakly unstable cumulus
may generate a few weak showers or sprinkles near and east of
Brookings to Luverne to Spencer line, but the chance is lower than
Monday. Aside from breezy conditions west of I-29, mostly quiet
weather continues with sfc ridging Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND: A strong upper level trough tracking
east through Canada drags a front and narrow warm sector into the
Northern to Central Plains late week, bringing the next round of
showers and storms. Latest guidance suggests a stronger shortwave
tracks into the Central Plains in southwest flow aloft Friday
through Saturday with a low (<30%) chance for ingredients favorable
for severe weather, favored most by the GEFS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Light northerly
winds begin the period but showers with embedded thunder have
developed across central and south central South Dakota. These
showers will push east through the evening and overnight hours. Have
included VCSH in KHON and KFSD`s TAFS as confidence is highest in
these locations having the highest chance for seeing rain. Trends
will be monitored for KSUX. Have left VCSH as confidence is not high
enough to mention thunder at this time but this potential will again
be monitored.

Winds will turn northwesterly tomorrow and become breezy with gusts
up to 20-30 knots expected. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
possible, mainly across southwest Minnesota. The breezy northwest
winds and showers/storms will finish out the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BP
AVIATION...Meyers