Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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053 FXUS64 KFWD 220554 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1254 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/ Isolated convection from earlier this evening has now dissipated allowing for a remaining quiet and humid overnight. Another round of low-level stratus will surge northward later tonight overspreading much of Central Texas and portions of North Texas before sunrise Wednesday morning. Active weather is expected to begin by late Wednesday morning into Wednesday night across much of the region. Shortwave impulses in the southwest flow aloft will aid in the development of multiple rounds of thunderstorms along a couple surface features. A cold front currently pushing into northern Oklahoma will approach our Red River counties by 9-11am Wednesday morning. Southward propagating convection will likely already be ongoing along this frontal boundary as it enters our forecast area. The front will interact with an extremely moist and unstable airmass as it slowly sags south of the Red River by midday Wednesday. Long, straight hodographs will favor clusters of supercells along and behind this frontal boundary with primarily a very large hail threat. As we move into Wednesday afternoon, daytime heating ahead of the front will likely allow for the development of more scattered thunderstorms. Another area of potential convective initiation later in the day will reside near the cold front/dryline intersection in the San Angelo area where recent CAM guidance is highlighting thunderstorm development. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will the be the primary hazards with any storms south of the frontal boundary. If the front stalls or slows somewhere across North Texas, boundary interactions and locally backed surface flow will increase effective SRH and subsequently the tornado threat. However, if storm interactions lead to rather substantial cold pool development and outflow reinforces the southward progression of the frontal boundary, we may see a quicker transition to more of an MCS type situation with primarily a damaging wind threat by Wednesday evening. With plenty of elevated instability behind the outflow/frontal boundary, isolated to scattered storms may continue to develop across portions of North Texas into Wednesday evening and the early overnight as the bulk of thunderstorm activity enters Central and Southeast Texas. Impressive PWATs in the 1.9-2.1" range highlight the potential for heavy rainfall Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Mean flow parallel to the frontal boundary would also suggest a potential for training thunderstorms increasing the threat for localized flash flooding across portions of North and Central Texas. Regional models and high- resolution CAMs are currently struggling to pinpoint where this band or two of heavier rainfall may occur (highly dependent on the location of the frontal boundary and any outflow boundaries). However, the 00Z HREF highlights the greatest potential for localized 4-5" totals generally south of an Eastland-Paris line and north of a Lampasas-Palestine line. The localized nature of this threat is keeping us from issuing a Flood Watch now, but we will take a look at the suite of 06Z guidance later tonight to reassess the need for and placement of a Flood Watch in the morning forecast package. The bulk of this activity should push east and southeast of our forecast area by midnight Wednesday night. Additional chances for storms will arrive on Thursday. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 230 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ Update: The previous long term forecast remains largely unchanged. We`ll have another potential for severe weather on Thursday, which is detailed in the previous discussion below. Several additional chances for showers and storms are expected through early next week, with perhaps additional opportunities for severe weather both Friday and Saturday. Stay weather-aware, especially if you have any outdoor plans over the holiday weekend. Additionally, with the heat and humidity cranking up this weekend, ensure you practice heat safety. Wear light-colored clothing, drink hydrating fluids, and take frequent breaks in an air-conditioned space. Barnes Previous Discussion: /Wednesday Onward/ A cold front will sag south into North Texas on Wednesday as a shortwave sweeps across the Plains. A few storm clusters may be ongoing around daybreak Wednesday as the front crosses the Red River, with activity dissipating mid to late morning as the low level jet mixes out. The front will likely stall somewhere between I-20 and the Red River, providing focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon as the right entrance region of a 90kt jet approaches from the west. Strong flow aloft (and the resulting deep layer shear) combined with good instability will lead to some of these storm becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds both possible. The presence of the surface front may also enhance the tornado threat at times, though a persistent warm layer at 850 to 700mb will hopefully mitigate tornado development. Thunderstorms (some severe) will continue into Wednesday evening, with the best storm chances being along and north of I-20 near the surface front. PWats near 2 inches will also allow for locally heavy rain in thunderstorms, and flooding may become an issue where any training convection may occur. Storms will begin to wind down around midnight Wednesday night, with activity eventually dissipating during the overnight hours. Thunderstorms will redevelop on Thursday as a shortwave trough passes overhead, with the surface boundary (along with other possible mesoscale boundaries from Wednesday convection) providing a focus for development. Shear and instability will be more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes possible. Some deterministic guidance in fact indicates a higher tornado threat for Thursday, but I would like to see better resolution guidance in the form of convection allowing models (which will arrive later today through Wednesday) before ramping up the tornado messaging. The persistent warm layer could also work against tornado development. In any case storms will continue into Thursday evening, with the best rain chances again being along and north of I-20 near the surface boundary. That being said, any southward shift in the front itself or in any mesoscale boundary could shift the better storm chances southward into Central Texas. Activity will dissipate overnight Thursday night, giving way to a hot and humid Friday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs in the lower to middle 90s will yield 100+ degree heat indices Friday afternoon, with the front having lifted well north of the Red River by then. The heat will continue through the weekend, with parts of Central Texas possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria on Saturday. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoons associated with the dryline. Though storm coverage may remain isolated, each storm which manages to develop would likely become severe. A deepening low over the Great Lakes will send a cold front southward into the region once again on Monday, providing some relief from the heat along with a slight chance of storms for Memorial Day. At this time, it looks like the front will push through the entire region, leading to warm but drier weather next Tuesday through the midweek period of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ MVFR cigs are currently pushing into Central Texas and should reach KACT ~08Z and the D10 terminals ~10Z before lifting and scattering out by mid-morning. It is possible that cigs remain SCT across the western portions of D10 through the morning. Widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop as early as 17Z-18Z Wednesday, but will become more likely later in the afternoon and evening. We will start VCTS at the D10 terminals at 18Z with a TEMPO for TSRA from 20Z-24Z. Storms that impact the D10 airspace may be strong to severe with threats for large hail, damaging winds, and lightning. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 87 74 94 74 / 50 40 20 5 20 Waco 73 88 74 92 73 / 60 20 10 10 20 Paris 68 83 70 89 69 / 60 50 40 10 30 Denton 69 86 71 93 70 / 50 40 20 5 20 McKinney 70 85 73 92 71 / 50 40 20 5 20 Dallas 72 87 73 94 73 / 50 40 20 5 20 Terrell 70 86 73 91 71 / 50 30 20 5 20 Corsicana 74 89 75 93 75 / 60 20 10 10 20 Temple 73 88 74 93 73 / 40 20 5 10 20 Mineral Wells 70 87 73 95 70 / 40 40 10 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$