792
FXUS64 KFWD 161038
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
538 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The current forecast remains on track with no significant
adjustments needed. Morning stratus hasn`t strayed too far from
the ArkLaTex and far East Texas keeping skies clear and nocturnal
cooling efficient amid light to near calm winds. Many locations,
outside of the immediate urban areas, will begin the day in the
mid/upper 60s. Temperatures will climb to as much as 5 degrees
above normal both today and tomorrow.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/

Local radar imagery shows that the scattered convection that
developed across portions of Central Texas and the Hill Country
Sunday afternoon and early evening has dissipated given the loss
of daytime heating and weak forcing. The remainder of the
overnight period should be precipitation-free with generally
mostly clear skies and light east/northeast winds which should
yield morning lows a few degrees cooler than yesterday. The
persistent low over the Lower Mississippi Valley, remnants of
Francine, is beginning to drift further southwest as Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight nears the coast of the Carolinas. This will
allow for wrap-around moisture/clouds to shift westward this
morning, resulting in a cloudy start across parts of East Texas
and maybe even as far west as the eastern Metroplex.

Situated between a seasonably strong mid-level low dropping along
the northern California coastline and a weak Rex Block meandering
over the eastern U.S., mid/upper level ridging will prevail
through the period. Expect unseasonably warm temperatures to
continue with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s and
overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For mid September,
the average high/low at DFW and Waco are 89/69F and 91/67F,
respectively.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 224 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/
Update:
There is very little change to the long-term forecast. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above-average temperatures through the end
of the work week. We will continue to monitor the potential for a
pattern change that could bring low chances for rain and slightly
cooler temperatures to the region as we head into the weekend. See
the previous discussion below for more details.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/

Summer-like weather will continue for much of the upcoming work
week as weak upper level ridging prevails aloft. High temperatures
will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal, topping out in the
mid 90s for most locations each day. Gulf moisture will be
especially prevalent during the mid to late week time period,
resulting in warm and muggy mornings with low temperatures only
falling into the low to mid 70s. Heat index values may surpass the
triple digit mark for many locations, particularly Wednesday
through Friday. No chances for showers and thunderstorms are
currently expected through the end of the work week.

There is a glimmer of hope that we`ll return to a more active
pattern heading into next weekend as an upper level trough works
to break down the ridge over the southern CONUS. The NBM brings
low storm chances back to the region Friday evening, with storm
chances possibly lingering through the weekend. Stay tuned (and
keep your fingers crossed) as these details come more into focus
over the next several days.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR/IFR CIGs have only made it about as far west at KGGG/Longview
making it highly unlikely that any of our TAF sites will see low
ceilings this morning. This is corroborated by the latest model
guidance which indicates the probability of morning stratus reaching
the North Texas TAF sites has fallen to around 10-20%. All
mentions of low ceilings have been dropped from the TAFs.

VFR is expected to persist through the period with wind speeds
remaining at or below 10 kts and continued variability between
E-NE and E-SE. Could see MVFR stratus make another westward push
across D10 around daybreak Tuesday but it again looks to come up
short of reaching the major airports across North Texas with low
VFR prevailing.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  71  90  74  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                93  69  93  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               86  68  86  67  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              91  67  91  70  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            91  67  90  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              92  70  91  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             90  67  89  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           92  69  92  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              94  69  94  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       92  67  92  70  96 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$