Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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464 FXUS64 KFWD 190539 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Rain chances on the far outer periphery of PTC One continue to wane within our forecast area. The greatest moisture content with this feature has trended more westward with each passing model run as the system drifts towards the Texas Coastal Bend. Total rain amounts within our CWA over the next 48 hours will range from 0" in much of North Texas, to perhaps around 0.5" in our southern Central Texas zones. No severe weather or flooding issues are forecast. The good news is that a substantial increase in cloud cover will offer a rare mid-June day with highs in the 80s, along with a decent easterly breeze. This cloud cover will begin departing the area to the west tomorrow, and highs will rebound into the lower 90s accordingly as the mid-level weakness is replaced by a strengthening upper ridge. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ Update: Rain bands associated with PTC One will continue to move from southeast to west across the state on Wednesday night as the remnants of the tropical depression/storm transition further inland into Mexico. Overall, the forecast trends discussed below remain on track, therefore no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. The NBM has continued a downward trend in the coverage of precipitation after sunrise on Thursday with convection contracting closer to the main circulation. This is likely to keep many areas rain-free after sunrise on Thursday apart from portions of Central Texas and areas near/west of US-281 in North Texas. 12 Previous Discussion: /Wednesday Night Onward/ A tropical disturbance will continue moving west across South Texas and northern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorms will shift west of the I-35 corridor, eventually exiting to our west during the overnight hours. A second batch of precipitation may develop across Central Texas during the day Thursday along a lingering moist axis, which will warrant some chance to slight chance POPs south of the I-20 corridor. All showers and storms should come to an end Thursday night as a mid level ridge quickly redevelops overhead. The result will be a return to hot, humid, and rain-free weather Friday through the weekend. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s will have conditions pushing Heat Advisory criteria either Sunday or Monday (heat index 105 or greater). The next opportunity for rain will be associated with either another tropical system entering from the south, a weak front from the north, or both around the middle part of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06z TAFs/ Very ragged low stratus at 3-4 kft currently exists across parts of North Texas, but will become more widespread in coverage by the early morning hours. The greatest potential for cigs below 3 kft will remain west of the TAF sites, but VFR cigs are likely to affect most of the airports later this morning. A scattering of the low deck should occur heading into the afternoon while light precipitation falling from a mid cloud deck pivots northwestward into the area. Rain chances are too low to include at Metroplex TAF sites, but will carry a window of VCSH at Waco where showers should be more numerous through the afternoon and evening. A modest easterly breeze of 8-12 kts with occasional higher gusts will prevail through the period. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 88 76 92 75 / 5 20 20 5 0 Waco 73 83 74 91 73 / 10 30 20 10 5 Paris 72 87 73 91 71 / 5 10 5 0 0 Denton 74 89 73 92 72 / 5 20 20 5 0 McKinney 75 88 74 92 73 / 5 20 10 5 0 Dallas 74 88 76 93 75 / 5 20 10 5 0 Terrell 74 85 74 92 72 / 10 20 10 0 0 Corsicana 73 86 76 93 75 / 10 20 10 0 0 Temple 73 82 73 91 73 / 10 50 30 20 10 Mineral Wells 72 88 73 90 72 / 0 20 20 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$