842
FXUS64 KFWD 181833
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
133 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend/

A quiet weekend with regard to rain chances, which will be NIL
with mid level heights on the rise with an upper ridge building
over the region. What it will be is very warm and humid, as sunny
skies allow for maximum insolation. Unfortunately, a lot of the
sun`s energy will be used to to evaporate moisture from the soil
and plentiful green vegetation (evapotranspiration). I have
decided to undercut NBM guidance temperatures both this afternoon
and again on Sunday by 2-3 degrees just solely for this reason,
despite the synoptic set up supporting hotter temperatures.
Afternoon temperatures will still heat up to around 90 degrees
and combine with elevated humidity values for heat index values
into the mid 90s. Though not extremely oppressive, it still won`t
be the most pleasant outdoors during the peak heating of the
afternoon through sunset. This will be reminder that the long dog
days of summer are just around the next corner and will be here
before we know it.

Southerly winds 5 to 10 mph tonight will hold low temperatures up
around around 70 degrees around sunrise Sunday. Patchy fog and
a brief window of low clouds through mid morning are anticipated
once again across primarily Central Texas. Otherwise, a broad
surface high over the Lower Mississippi Valley and low pressure
along the lee of the Southern Rockies will help increase the
surface pressures gradient across the Southern Plains on Sunday.
Proficient mixing by midday will also help increase southerly
winds to between 10-15 mph with gusts exceeding 20 mph by early
afternoon. This may provide a little relief from the very warm
and humid conditions, but not by much. Dress lightly and if
working or playing outdoors (whichever it may be) for any longer
amount of time. Be sure to remain hydrated and occasionally take
a break in the shade or in an air-conditioned vehicle or home to
avoid overheating.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/
/Sunday through Friday/

Heat and humidity are the words that best describe the weather
across North and Central Texas as we head into the new week. The
upper ridge currently moving into the region will shift eastward
on Sunday with zonal flow taking its place. This pattern will
induce lee troughing across the Central High Plains which in turn
will increase southerly winds across the region. Although the wind
will help it feel not quite so stagnant, high temperatures Sunday
through Tuesday will reach the upper 80s to the middle 90s.
Afternoon heat index values will approach triple digits across the
western zones Sunday and Monday and for much of the forecast area
on Tuesday. Lows will also be warm, ranging from the upper 60s to
the lower 70s.

Low rain/storm chances are expected across the northern zones
Tuesday night with the passage of a fast moving shortwave. Once
the shortwave lifts into the Central Plains, a weak cold front
will slide southward through the Southern Plains, stalling across
Central Texas Wednesday night. Lift along the front, coupled with
weak large scale ascent associated with the passage of a compact
shortwave, will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Storms will increase in coverage on Thursday once the front lifts
slowly northward. Instability and deep layer shear are progged to
be sufficient to support strong to severe storms, but it is much
too early to know exactly where and how strong storms will be.
Storms chances should briefly end on Friday once the front lifts
north of the Red River and brief subsidence moves in behind yet
another shortwave, but the arrival of another shortwave and cold
front could produce additional showers and thunderstorms as we
move into next weekend.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler the second half of the week due
to more clouds, precipitation, and weak cold air advection; but
once the front lifts back north of the region, above normal
temperatures are expected.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

VFR. Sustained S winds around 5-10 kts, becoming 10-15 kts after
after 15z Sunday with a few gusts > 20 kts. Brief low MVFR (or
possibly IFR) cigs will be possible at KACT between 12z-15z
Sunday, but won`t last long.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  71  91  72  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                87  69  88  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               87  66  89  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              90  69  90  71  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            89  68  90  71  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              92  71  92  73  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             88  68  89  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           88  69  90  71  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              88  69  88  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       90  69  90  70  92 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$