452
FXUS64 KFWD 230505
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1205 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Night/

Increasing warm advection associated with a strengthening
nocturnal low-level jet will continue to support isolated
thunderstorm activity across portions of North and Central Texas
overnight with a marginally severe hail threat. This activity
should become primarily focused across our northeast zones during
the pre-dawn hours which will be in closest proximity to the nose
of the low-level jet. Despite widespread convection over the past
12 hours, the environment is not terribly worked over, and pockets
of steep lapse rates remain with MUCAPE values exceeding 2000
J/kg across much of the region.

After daybreak, additional convective development is expected
across western Central Texas in response to lift from a subtle
shortwave acting upon robust instability. This should send a
round of loosely organized convection east/northeastward through
the daytime, likely affecting much of Central Texas and perhaps
areas as far north as the I-20 corridor by mid afternoon.
Additional development is possible through peak heating to our
west/northwest along the dryline, and some of these storms could
impact North Texas late in the afternoon and evening. Due to a
volatile parameter space, all severe hazards will be possible,
with large hail being the primary threat. Additional flooding is
likely even with modest rainfall totals as grounds remain
saturated from recent exceptional rainfall. With some uncertainty
in both coverage and placement of storms, no adjustments were made
to the existing Flood Watch, but overall the threat for flooding
should be more isolated than Wednesday`s. High-end localized rain
amounts tomorrow could be around 2-3", but most areas will see
much less than that, and some locations will miss out on rainfall
entirely. Most thunderstorm activity should be winding down and
exiting the area to the east during the evening with a quieter
overnight period to follow.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 217 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024/
Update:
The long term portion of the forecast, as described below, has not
changed much with additional storms expected Thursday associated
with a lifting front and passing shortwave. It does appear the
atmosphere will need to recover from overnight convection before
additional storms get going, and that the front will have moved
well to the north before large scale lift associated with the
shortwave arrives. The best storm chances will be across North
Texas during the afternoon with storms exiting to the northeast
late Thursday evening. Plenty of moisture and instability will
remain in place and there should be adequate deep layer shear to
sustain updrafts. The difficult part will be determining just
where convection will initiate Thursday since there will be no
well-defined sources of low level convergence. Therefore, we will
keep chance PoPs in the forecast for now. Some storms will be
strong to severe with large hail being the primary threat. The
threat for localized flooding will also remain through the
afternoon.

The remainder of the week through the weekend will be hot and
humid with only some low afternoon/evening storm chances. It still
appears that another cold front will enter the region Sunday
night/Monday, resulting in drier and slightly cooler weather for
Memorial Day.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Onward/

A meandering surface front and a dryline will provide focus for
thunderstorm development again on Thursday as a modest shortwave
trough passes overhead. Recent CAM guidance has indicated that
showers and storms may begin developing Thursday morning across
Central Texas as forcing for ascent strengthens in advance of the
disturbance, likely on the nose of a strong theta-e ridge. Morning
showers and storms would likely be elevated in nature, making hail
the main concern in any strong or severe storm. Convection would
then develop farther north in the vicinity of the aforementioned
surface boundaries as the atmosphere destabilizes Thursday
afternoon.

Models have been less aggressive with the Thursday convection
compared to previous suites, perhaps a result of the atmosphere
being worked over from Wednesday night storms or cloud cover
associated with the Thursday morning activity. In addition, a
persistent capping inversion around 850mb may also be a mitigating
factor. Will keep POPs in the chance to slight chance category
for now, with the best chances across Central Texas in the morning
and North Texas in the afternoon. Any storm which forms
(particularly in the afternoon and evening) could become severe
with large hail and damaging winds; and locally heavy rain may
also occur.

Precipitation will come to an end Thursday night, followed by hot
and humid weather on Friday as the front lifts well north of the
region. A strong shortwave in the Plains will drag the dryline
east to near the I-35 corridor, which may serve as a focus for
isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Storm
coverage would likely remain low, but a highly unstable airmass
and strong flow aloft would allow any storm which forms to once
again become severe. The dryline will remain the main focus for
development on Saturday afternoon and evening as a stronger
shortwave crosses the Southern Plains. A strong cap will be in
place, but a few cells will likely break through it and quickly
become severe. The best chances for storms on Saturday appears at
this time to be along and north of I-20, and in the afternoon and
evening hours.

A lull in storm chances is then expected on Sunday as subsidence
briefly dominates in the wake of the Saturday system. It will
remain quite warm with highs ranging from the low 90s in the
northeast to the upper 90s across the west. Sunday may end up
being the warmest day temperature-wise, but lower dewpoints will
be in place compared to Friday and Saturday (when heat indices
will reach 100+ across most of the CWA).

The next upper level system will drop southeast from
Nebraska into Arkansas/Missouri Sunday night and Monday, dragging
a cold front south through the entire region. Weak forcing will
keep storm chances fairly low and limited to the eastern half of
the region. Otherwise, cooler air will arrive on Memorial Day with
the cold front, bringing near-normal temperatures to North and
Central Texas Monday night through the midweek period of next
week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Scattered convection exists on the southern periphery of D10 as of
05z, but remains clear of all TAF sites. This activity should
eventually wane, but this downward trend may not transpire for a
couple more hours. Additional convection is possible across parts
of Northeast Texas later tonight as lift from a low level jet
increases, but most or all of this should remain north and east of
the TAF sites. Otherwise, low cigs are beginning to fill in, and
will likely hover near 1 kft for most of the night. IFR cig
heights will be tempo`d at Metroplex airports, although their
longevity remains quite uncertain.

Additional convective development is expected tomorrow morning
across western portions of North and Central Texas which should
spread towards the TAF sites by midday. Convective impacts due to
lightning are likely on an intermittent basis, especially during
the afternoon. In addition, some storms may be strong or severe
with threats of hail and damaging winds. This activity should come
to an end around or perhaps even before 00z with a quieter
evening period.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  87  73  93  73 /  40  40  30   5  20
Waco                71  87  73  91  72 /  90  50  20  10  20
Paris               67  83  68  89  68 /  60  50  50   5  30
Denton              68  85  71  91  69 /  40  50  30   5  10
McKinney            69  85  72  91  70 /  40  50  40   5  20
Dallas              70  87  72  93  72 /  40  40  30   5  20
Terrell             70  85  72  91  71 /  60  40  40   5  20
Corsicana           72  88  74  92  73 /  70  40  30   5  20
Temple              67  89  74  92  72 /  70  40  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       68  86  71  93  69 /  40  50  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Thursday night for TXZ092>095-102>107-
117>123-130>135-141>148-156>161.

&&

$$