Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
734 FXUS64 KFWD 300805 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 305 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1149 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ /End of The Week/ The unsettled pattern with a round of storms and locally heavy rainfall primarily for North Texas this afternoon, possibly into early evening NE counties. A brief reprieve occurs before another MCS in northwest flow arrives overnight with similar impacts. The third round you ask? Possibly late Friday morning or afternoon, though this certainly looks more uncertain than the others. Highs will be confined in the 70s/80s (which we`ll take this time of year) with lows in the 60s to lower 70s. ------------------------------------------------------------ Now for the solemn, but also happy part... With that said, this will be my final forecast discussion after 30 years in the NWS, 25 years of those a lead meteorologist. I will always love love meteorology, forecasting, and the science. That will never change! What I won`t miss is the 3 decades of rotating, weekly shifts, some 6-7 days long. You throw in all the OT for hazardous weather and it can take it`s toll on just about anyone. I`ve especially enjoyed the outreach through the years as well meeting and working along with so many great partners, especially the EM community both young and old that I was honored to meet through school talks, SKYWARN, and of course my favorite, StormReady which I can`t understate the importance of these events. However, it is time for me to gallop off into the sunset and to new pastures in life and see where it takes me. I had the honor of working in at 5 NWS offices(Brownsville TX, Goodland KS, Spokane WA, Jackson MS, and here in Fort Worth the past 22 years) and in 3 NWS regions(Southern, Central, and Western). I`ve had many mentors through the years, some that are no longer with us and have made so many connections and lifetime friendships with colleagues throughout (you all know who you are) through those offices, training workshops in Boulder CO, Kansas City MO, and Atlanta GA, as well as region offices. I write this with mixed emotions as I remember the first day in Brownsville TX May 24th, 1994(happens to be my wife of 29 years birthday as well). Throw in all the historic winter, tropical, and tornadic/severe weather events I`ve part of with awesome colleagues and meteorologists will always remain vivid in my mind and NEVER fade and last my entire lifetime! I will miss you all, you can bet on that. I wish you all the best in the future and hope your memories of me are good ones! Have a great Summer and rest of 2024 and beyond! Sincerely, 05/Marty && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/ Showers and thunderstorms will shift south and east of the region Friday night as the shortwave responsible for our late week convection heads for the Mississippi Valley. A remnant surface front will still linger near the Red River, however, providing a focus for isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. These storms will be mainly along and north of the Highway 380 corridor, though one or two could drift south to near I-20 before dissipating Saturday evening. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with any of these storms given the strong instability and decent amounts of deep layer shear available. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night into Sunday associated with dryline convection to our west. A weak shortwave will help initiate thunderstorms across the TX South Plains and western Concho Valley Saturday late afternoon and evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Eastward propagation would bring these storms into western portions of North and Central Texas after midnight Saturday night, then through the I-35 corridor early Sunday morning. The highest severe weather threat would be across the western zones where better instability will exist, though a damaging wind concern may continue overnight if a decent cold pool develops. Showers and storms will weaken with the loss of the low level jet Sunday morning, but should redevelop east of I-35 Sunday afternoon as instability increases. All activity should dissipate while exiting to the east Monday night. The persistent mid level ridge centered over Mexico will expand north through he southern Rockies during the first half of next week, veering winds aloft to the northwest and eventually to the north by Wednesday. This pattern will alternate the region between hot and humid conditions associated with the ridge and rain cooled air associated with thunderstorms dropping south from the Plains into North and Central Texas. Timing is a bit uncertain, but the latest guidance indicates one storm complex arriving MOnday night, with another sometime on Wednesday. Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat in each case. The ridge will expand east after Wednesday, possibly shutting down convective weather and heating things up for the latter half of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1149 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ /06z TAFs/ The primary challenges remain timing of morning MVFR/IFR conditions, then timing a couple rounds of strong to severe TSRA. One round will be around 21z, with the other arriving near 06z. VFR cigs may not return until just before the first round of storms by/after 18z. Otherwise, SE winds around 10 kts will prevail. 05/Marty && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 69 80 71 85 / 60 80 70 40 40 Waco 84 70 80 71 85 / 50 70 80 30 40 Paris 83 66 80 68 83 / 60 70 80 50 40 Denton 83 67 79 68 85 / 70 80 70 30 40 McKinney 84 67 79 70 84 / 70 70 80 40 40 Dallas 85 69 80 71 86 / 60 80 70 40 40 Terrell 83 68 79 70 83 / 60 70 80 40 40 Corsicana 84 71 79 71 85 / 60 60 80 40 40 Temple 85 71 81 71 85 / 40 70 70 30 30 Mineral Wells 82 68 78 69 85 / 50 70 70 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$