663
FXUS64 KFWD 222230
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The long-awaited cold front has finally inched its way into the
northwest portion of the CWA late this afternoon. A broken line of
showers and storms was oriented along it, extending roughly from
northwestern Montague County to far western Stephens County. The
showers and storms will lose instability tonight but there should
be enough forcing from the approaching shortwave trough to keep at
least showers and isolated storms through the night into Monday
morning. Once the shortwave passes on Monday afternoon, it will
bring an end to most of the showers/storms and push the front
well into Central Texas.

We will only make some minor adjustments to the hourly grids based
on the current position of the cold front. Otherwise, the current
forecast, as detailed below, is on track.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

The first day of astronomical fall will feel more like late August
with widespread highs in the low to mid-90s expected this
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in
the vicinity of a slow-moving cold front currently situated from
Central Oklahoma to Northwest Texas. Current analysis of the speed
of this frontal boundary and the latest suite of high-resolution
guidance places the front in our far west and northwest counties
by ~6PM this evening. With the greatest synoptic-scale support
displaced to the north of our forecast area, expect shower and
thunderstorm coverage to remain more scattered south of the Red
River as the front shifts into North Texas. Isentropic ascent atop
the frontal layer and a modest vorticity maxima shifting overhead
tonight into early Monday will keep shower and thunderstorm
chances in the forecast through Monday morning. Rainfall totals
will remain quite light across most of the region with a 40-50%
chance for 1+" totals along/west of Highway 281 with the initial
activity that enters our area later this evening. Severe weather
is not expected, however isolated 30-40 mph wind gusts across our
far west will be possible.

The front will push through the entirety of our forecast area into
Central and Southeast Texas by midday Monday with rain chances
tapering off as the primary mid- and upper-level support shifts to
the northeast. Cloud cover and post-frontal northwesterly winds
will finally break the streak of abnormally warm weather we have
been experiencing the past several days. Expect high temperatures
to top in the mid-70s to lower 80s across much of North Texas
Monday afternoon with upper 80s to lower 90s across our far
southern zones.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/
Update:
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, thus,
the weather discussion appended below is still valid. There
remains a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the
evolution of the upper-level trough/low that will struggle to
progress east of the Plains during the midweek period, becoming
cut off either over the Southern Plains or Mississippi Valley.
This is likely to be further complicated by the anticipated
tropical system that is expected to develop across the Gulf of
Mexico this week. Regardless, the net result is the renewed
potential for rain for parts of the area late in the week as an
upper low lingers overhead (or nearby). Did not deviate much from
the NBM temperature and PoP forecast through the long term given
the model disagreement.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Tuesday through Saturday/

The cold front mentioned in the short-term discussion will push
well south of our forecast area by Monday night, becoming
stationary across south central Texas by Tuesday. Surface high
pressure over the Central Plains will enable a persistent
northerly wind flow through most of the week - indeed, the longest
period of north winds North Texas has experienced since the
spring months. This will help moderate the temperatures this
coming week, versus the unseasonably warm conditions we`ve
encountered of late.

A large-scale upper level trough will develop and deepen across
the Midwest in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, while a smaller-
scale lobe of vorticity slides southeastward into our region on
the backside of this larger feature. The forcing for ascent
brought about by this approaching shortwave will provide our
second primary opportunity for precipitation across the area this
week. Scattered showers, and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms,
will initially develop over our western counties Tuesday
afternoon, with scattered coverage expanding across the remainder
of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Moisture and
lift will not be overly significant, and thus QPF amounts should
remain fairly light area-wide Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most
of the precipitation should exit the region to the east by late
Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions persisting from that
point onward through Saturday.

The combination of lower thicknesses, persistent northerly surface
flow, and intermittent clouds and precipitation should combine to
reel afternoon temperatures back to near (or even below) seasonal
norms. Highs through the period should be confined to the lower
80s across much of the area, with middle 80s present in the
central counties. These values were consistent with those offered
by the NBM, as well as the ECMWF ensemble guidance. Overnight lows
in the lower to middle 60s (with some 50s out west) will
definitely help make the mornings feel a bit more fall-like.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

A broken line of storms along an approaching cold front will
remain northwest of the TAF sites for most of the evening. FROPA
at the Metroplex TAF sites will be around 05Z and Waco closer to
sunrise. Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany the front,
but the loss of instability should limit the coverage of storms
overnight. MVFR stratus will move in behind the front before
sunrise Monday, remaining in place until around midday. Low clouds
will lift and scatter at all TAF sites by 18Z with VFR the
remainder of the afternoon. The exiting shortwave trough on Monday
afternoon will keep all storms well east of the TAF sites.

A south to southeast wind this evening will turn to the north
behind the front initially and more northwesterly on Monday.
Sustained wind speeds will be between 8 and 12 knots, but some
higher gusts could accompany any thunderstorm.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  80  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  40
Waco                72  87  70  87  66 /  20  20  20  30  40
Paris               70  83  63  85  62 /  20  40  20  20  30
Denton              66  80  63  87  63 /  40  40  20  20  40
McKinney            69  82  65  87  63 /  30  40  20  20  40
Dallas              71  83  68  87  65 /  30  30  20  20  40
Terrell             72  85  66  86  64 /  20  30  20  30  30
Corsicana           74  88  70  88  67 /  10  20  20  30  30
Temple              72  90  69  89  66 /  20  20  20  30  40
Mineral Wells       65  80  63  86  63 /  50  40  30  30  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$