Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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554 FXUS64 KFWD 150413 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1113 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday/ A shortwave trough traversing the Central Plains is acting to break down the synoptic scale upper ridge, and this process will maintain a relative weakness aloft locally through the weekend. Despite the absence of strong ridging overhead, little in the way of forcing will be present to allow for convection, especially given a dearth of low-level moisture content. These factors will yield a seasonably hot weekend with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the low/mid 70s. At most, a percolating cumulus field across portions of southeast Texas on Sunday afternoon could mature into very isolated rain shower activity, but these rain chances across our southeast zones are less than 10%. A southeasterly wind of 10-15 mph will prevail through the entire weekend, offering modest relief from the summer heat. With fairly aggressive mixing out of surface dewpoints during the daytime, heat index values will remain comparable to ambient temperatures. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 326 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/ A shortwave disturbance currently over the Four Corners will continue to slowly move east over the next several days, eventually traversing across the Southern Plains over the weekend. Forcing for ascent will allow for the development of scattered showers and storms to our north and west early Sunday morning. Our region should remain dry as the better lift and moisture remains displaced to the north, but the GFS continues to show potential for precipitation to move into our northwestern counties. Have refrained from including >10-15% PoPs as the GFS is more "the exception, not the rule" and the ensembles are even less optimistic. We`ll continue to keep an eye on this as we go into the weekend. As the shortwave moves across the Continental Divide, the upper ridge mentioned in the short term discussion above will be shunted eastward in response. By early this upcoming week, the large-scale pattern will feature the ridge to our east and a longwave trough to our west. Moisture advection will ramp up on the back side of the ridge, sending 70s dewpoints and 1.5-2" PWATs across the region. Models continue to depict a weakness in the ridge overhead through midweek. Isolated to scattered rain chances will continue to be possible through the end of the week as the northern periphery of a GOM tropical disturbance moves inland through South and Central Texas. This disturbance will bring even richer moisture to our southern zones late week. Best chances for rain and storms looks to remain south of I-20 in Central Texas as the disturbance is offset to our south. Forecast soundings show long, skinny CAPE profiles and around 2" PWATs which are indicative of very efficient rainfall producing storms. Hence, heavy rain and lightning will be the main threats and will impact outdoor plans. Rainfall accumulations Wednesday through the end of the week are still uncertain in regards to exact northward extent and exact amount, but highest rainfall totals in our CWA are expected in Central Texas closer to the disturbance. High temperatures in the afternoons this upcoming week will be slightly cooler than previous days, peaking in the lower 90s (and even 80s on Thursday). However, the increased humidity will keep peak heat indices within the mid 90s to around 100 degree range most days. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06z TAFs/ VFR and southeast winds of 8-12 kts will persist through the period, with a few higher daytime gusts of 15-20 kts. Any nocturnal MVFR stratus intrusions are expected to remain well south and east of the TAF sites. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 95 76 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 72 93 73 91 75 / 0 0 0 5 0 Paris 69 93 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 73 95 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 74 94 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 74 95 76 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 71 93 72 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 70 94 74 94 76 / 0 0 0 5 0 Temple 71 93 72 93 74 / 0 0 0 5 0 Mineral Wells 68 94 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$