539
FXUS64 KFWD 241107
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
607 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Scattered elevated thunderstorms continue this morning mainly
south of I-20 and we`ve made some minor adjustments upward to PoPs
through mid morning. This narrow band of convection is tied to
modest warm advection within the 925-850 mb layer where a tight
theta-e gradient is located. The bulk of this activity should
remain confined within this narrow corridor through the mid
morning, although some slight southward drift is expected as this
boundary drifts southward.

Also, we`ve raised PoPs for the overnight hours as a secondary
upstream shortwave spreads south out of the Southern Plains and a
weak front moves into North Texas. High resolution guidance is
much more aggressive with convection overnight tied to this weak
front and strong low level moisture convergence. No other changes
at this time.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Wednesday/

Mostly clear skies and humid conditions are in place across North
Texas tonight with some low clouds starting to develop across our
southeast counties. Our remnant frontal boundary appears to be
draped across the Hill Country at this hour, but the sharpest
925-850 mb theta-e axis is lined up just south of I-20. Satellite
imagery shows an expanding elevated cumulus field developing
across the Big Country, likely aided by weak warm advection atop
this boundary. For the remainder of tonight, we`ll likely see an
uptick in scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms mainly
south of I-20 into the early morning hours. Limited elevated
instability should keep the coverage of thunderstorms in check a
bit. We`ll have some 20-30% PoPs to account for this activity
with a gradual decrease in coverage through the late morning
hours.

Tuesday afternoon should be relatively quiet and warm with
temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s across the region.
Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave trough will dig into the Southern
Plains and Mid South region tonight and will send another weak
cold front into North Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along this boundary Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning. We`ll have 50-60% PoPs late Tuesday night
across the northern half of the CWA as this disturbance moves
through. Any lingering activity should diminish through the early
morning hours on Wednesday with drier and slightly cooler air
filtering into the region. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low
to mid 80s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 405 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Seasonable, rain-free conditions are expected at the start of the
extended forecast period as North and Central Texas remains
situated on the backside of an upper level low. Highs Thursday
will be quite similar to Wednesday`s, topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

Conditions will change slightly as the region will be under the
influence of the upper level low retrograding further west Friday.
As PTC9 moves inland and tracks around the upper low before
becoming absorbed into its flow, wrap around moisture will be sent
southward into the region, promoting low rain chances (20%)
across the northeast Friday. Other than the low rain chances,
slightly breezy conditions are expected as a result of this
system, with peak wind gusts near 25 mph likely both Friday and
Saturday.

This upper level system will gradually shift eastward this weekend
while ridging remains situated to the west. Increasing heights
aloft will aid in warming surface temperatures, with mid and upper
80s anticipated Sunday and into early next week. Overnight lows
will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s throughout the period.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

A cluster of thunderstorms is moving through North Texas this
morning but should stay confined within a narrow band passing
between the major Metroplex airports and Waco. We`ll carry a few
hours of VCTS at Waco given a slight southward drift expected
through morning. Otherwise, VFR cigs will prevail at the D10
sites through the morning as the convection passes to the south.
Variable winds will become light southwest this morning.

Another round of thunderstorms are expected late tonight as
another weak front moves into the area. We`ll have VCTS by 8Z with
a TEMPO for TSRA between 09-11Z. A wind shift to the north will
accompany this convective activity.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  67  83  63  83 /  10  60  20   0   5
Waco                88  67  84  61  83 /  30  50  30   0   5
Paris               87  63  81  59  81 /   0  70  20   5   5
Denton              88  64  83  59  83 /   5  70  20   0   5
McKinney            89  65  83  60  83 /   5  70  20   0   5
Dallas              90  67  84  63  84 /  20  60  20   0   5
Terrell             89  64  82  60  83 /  20  70  30   0   5
Corsicana           89  67  83  62  84 /  40  70  50   0   5
Temple              89  68  85  60  86 /  30  30  30   0   5
Mineral Wells       88  64  83  58  83 /  20  60  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$