449
FXUS64 KFWD 240531
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Wednesday/

Mostly clear skies and humid conditions are in place across North
Texas tonight with some low clouds starting to develop across our
southeast counties. Our remnant frontal boundary appears to be
draped across the Hill Country at this hour, but the sharpest
925-850 mb theta-e axis is lined up just south of I-20. Satellite
imagery shows an expanding elevated cumulus field developing
across the Big Country, likely aided by weak warm advection atop
this boundary. For the remainder of tonight, we`ll likely see an
uptick in scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms mainly
south of I-20 into the early morning hours. Limited elevated
instability should keep the coverage of thunderstorms in check a
bit. We`ll have some 20-30% PoPs to account for this activity
with a gradual decrease in coverage through the late morning
hours.

Tuesday afternoon should be relatively quiet and warm with
temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s across the region.
Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave trough will dig into the Southern
Plains and Mid South region tonight and will send another weak
cold front into North Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along this boundary Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning. We`ll have 50-60% PoPs late Tuesday night
across the northern half of the CWA as this disturbance moves
through. Any lingering activity should diminish through the early
morning hours on Wednesday with drier and slightly cooler air
filtering into the region. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low
to mid 80s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 342 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Over Tuesday evening, a digging shortwave disturbance will eject
southward into Missouri from the main longwave trough to our east
and eventually amplify into a cut-off low near the Ark-La-Tex by
Wednesday morning. The movement of this upper low will allow
additional showers and storms to initially form across North
Texas, but eventually move south across the region midweek. Severe
weather is not expected with any midweek activity. A short lull
in precipitation is expected on Thursday as North and Central
Texas become situated on the subsident back-side of the eastward-
moving low. Temperatures over mid-late week will remain relatively
seasonal, if not slightly-below normal as we get an influx of
low-level CAA on the backside of the aforementioned low. Morning
lows in the 50s/60s and afternoon highs in the 80s are expected
each day through late week/early weekend.

Low rain chances will return to our eastern North Texas counties
on Friday as the cut-off low shifts back westward in response to
the landfall and movement of PTC 9 late Thursday into Friday. As
PTC 9 makes landfall in Florida, model guidance continues to show
both lows moving in tandem around a shared center, with a slight
westward retrograde of the larger cut-off low. The reason behind
this "retrograde" is the potential for the Fujiwhara Effect to
occur atop the SE CONUS. The Fujiwhara Effect is when two cyclones
move close enough to each other that they begin to rotate around
a shared center point. Eventually, PTC 9 will be snuffed out
while the Ark-La-Tex cut-off low remains through the end of the
week, keeping low rain chances present for our east and
northeastern zones into Saturday morning.

Eventually, the cut-off low will exit the region late next weekend
and become enveloped within the flow of another NW-SE moving upper
level trough. In response, mid-level ridging will build in across
North and Central Texas. Temperatures will gradually warm, with
afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s by next Monday.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail for much of the night, but areas of MVFR cigs/vis
will likely develop mainly to the south of Waco along with some
scattered showers during the overnight hours. A brief window of
MVFR vis in 5SM BR is possible throughout the D10 airspace during
the early morning hours, but much of the precipitation should
remain to the south. Winds will generally be light and variable
overnight, or a light westerly component into the early morning
hours before a more southwesterly wind becomes established during
the day. VFR should prevail much of the day Tuesday with another
weak cold front moving into the area tonight. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will likely accompany this front and have added
a VCTS from 25/09Z in the DFW TAF.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  88  67  83  64 /   5   5  50  10   0
Waco                67  87  67  83  62 /  30  30  30  20   0
Paris               63  87  63  83  60 /   5   0  60  10   5
Denton              63  89  64  83  60 /   0   0  50  10   5
McKinney            64  89  64  84  60 /   0   0  50  10   0
Dallas              67  90  67  84  63 /   5   5  40  10   0
Terrell             65  89  64  83  60 /  10   5  40  10   0
Corsicana           68  90  67  84  63 /  20  20  30  20   0
Temple              68  89  67  85  61 /  30  30  20  20   0
Mineral Wells       62  89  64  83  59 /   5  10  40  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$