210
FXUS64 KFWD 232042
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
342 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 140 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/
/Through Tuesday/

A slow-moving cold front is currently draped along a Comanche-Fort
worth-Gainesville line but isn`t particularly discernible outside
of a weak northwest wind shift and a subtle drop in temperatures
and dew points behind the front. Ongoing showers continue to
weaken early this afternoon and will gradually diminish over the
next couple of hours or so, with a lull in rain chances this
evening into the overnight period. Clouds have started to scatter
out across our northeast zones, with the rest of the forecast
area expected to see some clearing by this evening. The lingering
clouds will keep temperatures confined to the mid 70s to low 80s
across most of the area, with some spots reaching into the upper
80s to low 90s across Central Texas where less cloud cover is
expected through the afternoon.

While most of tonight will be quiet and rain-free, another weak
shortwave trough will skirt the Southern Plains, providing enough
ascent for scattered showers and storms to develop late tonight
into early Tuesday morning near the slow-moving front. Have kept
PoPs confined to areas south of I-20, and coverage should be far
less than what we saw this morning. The shortwave will gently
usher the front through the remainder of the forecast area.
However, the front will be quite washed out by the time this
occurs. As a result, temperatures will rebound into the mid to
upper 80s areawide tomorrow. Most of the morning showers and
storms should dissipate by late morning or midday, but isolated
activity may linger across Central Texas through the afternoon.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Over Tuesday evening, a digging shortwave disturbance will eject
southward into Missouri from the main longwave trough to our east
and eventually amplify into a cut-off low near the Ark-La-Tex by
Wednesday morning. The movement of this upper low will allow
additional showers and storms to initially form across North
Texas, but eventually move south across the region midweek. Severe
weather is not expected with any midweek activity. A short lull
in precipitation is expected on Thursday as North and Central
Texas become situated on the subsident back-side of the eastward-
moving low. Temperatures over mid-late week will remain relatively
seasonal, if not slightly-below normal as we get an influx of
low-level CAA on the backside of the aforementioned low. Morning
lows in the 50s/60s and afternoon highs in the 80s are expected
each day through late week/early weekend.

Low rain chances will return to our eastern North Texas counties
on Friday as the cut-off low shifts back westward in response to
the landfall and movement of PTC 9 late Thursday into Friday. As
PTC 9 makes landfall in Florida, model guidance continues to show
both lows moving in tandem around a shared center, with a slight
westward retrograde of the larger cut-off low. The reason behind
this "retrograde" is the potential for the Fujiwhara Effect to
occur atop the SE CONUS. The Fujiwhara Effect is when two cyclones
move close enough to each other that they begin to rotate around
a shared center point. Eventually, PTC 9 will be snuffed out
while the Ark-La-Tex cut-off low remains through the end of the
week, keeping low rain chances present for our east and
northeastern zones into Saturday morning.

Eventually, the cut-off low will exit the region late next weekend
and become enveloped within the flow of another NW-SE moving upper
level trough. In response, mid-level ridging will build in across
North and Central Texas. Temperatures will gradually warm, with
afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s by next Monday.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 140 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Lingering IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue to lift to VFR over the
next few hours, with low clouds scattering out by this evening.
Areas of rain continue south and east of D10 airspace, but this
activity should gradually diminish over the next couple of hours
or so. Winds have finally shifted out of the northwest at
DFW/FTW/AFW, and DAL/GKY will soon follow within the next hour or
so. Winds speeds will remain near 10 knots or less for the
this afternoon and will weaken below 5 knots this evening through
the remainder of the period. Given the light wind speeds, wind
direction may be variable at times tonight through Tuesday.

Additional scattered showers and a few storms are expected to
develop south of the I-20 corridor late tonight into early Tuesday
morning. This activity may approach the KACT terminal, but
coverage will be far less than we saw this morning. We`ll hold
off on any mention in the TAF for now, but we`ll reassess once
there is greater confidence in convective trends. MVFR stratus
will develop across portions of the area tonight and has been
introduced to the KACT TAF. The potential was too low to include
in any of the D10 TAFs at this time, but this will be re-evaluated
in future issuances.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  87  68  84  64 /  10   5  40  10   0
Waco                69  88  66  86  62 /  30  30  30  20   0
Paris               62  86  63  83  60 /   5   0  40  10   5
Denton              61  88  64  85  60 /   5   5  40  10   5
McKinney            62  88  65  85  60 /   5   5  40  10   0
Dallas              67  89  68  86  63 /  10  10  40  10   0
Terrell             65  89  65  85  60 /  20  10  30  10   0
Corsicana           69  90  67  86  63 /  30  30  20  20   0
Temple              68  89  66  89  61 /  30  30  30  20   0
Mineral Wells       61  88  64  85  59 /  20  10  40  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$