141
FXUS64 KFWD 131037
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A few locations have begun to experience minor visibility
reductions, so will keep the patchy fog across the west and south
for a few more hours this morning. Otherwise, the hot and rain-
free forecast is still on track.

30

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday/

A strong ridge aloft centered near El Paso will expand east across
Texas over the next few days, shutting off any convective attempts
across the region. Sunny days resulting from ridge-induced
subsidence will also generate a warming trend through the end of
the week. Highs in the lower to middle 90s can be expected today,
followed by widespread mid 90s on Friday, with low temperatures
climbing a few degrees each night. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to
lower 70s will yield heat index readings around 100 each
afternoon. Fortunately it looks like conditions will at least
remain below Heat Advisory criteria as we round out the week.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/
/Friday Night through Wednesday/

Tranquil weather is expected through the weekend as mid level
ridging will spread east across the Southern Plains and into the
Southeast U.S. A shortwave will track through the Plains on
Saturday, but moisture will be too limited and forcing for ascent
too far removed to result in any precipitation across our region.
We`ll see temperatures in the mid 90s both Saturday and Sunday.

By Monday, as ridging intensifies over the Southeastern U.S.,
deeper troughing will set up over the western CONUS. This will
eventually allow a plume of deep tropical moisture to spread
west across the Gulf around the periphery of the ridge and into
the Texas coastal waters by Monday afternoon. A pronounced mid
level deformation zone should be in place from the Big Bend region
through North Texas by this time, and while this feature won`t
result in any appreciable lift alone, it will be the least
subsident zone in proximity to the strong ridge farther east. With
an influx of tropical moisture and strong afternoon heating, we
should see an uptick in scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, primarily east of I-35 and across our southeastern
counties. This weakness aloft will linger through mid week while
we`ll have to watch for any tropical organization across the
southwest Gulf. Scattered afternoon showers/storms will be
possible Tuesday and Wednesday across the same areas to our
east/southeast. With the extra cloud cover, we may shave a few
degrees off our afternoon highs Monday through Wednesday, but the
added humidity will still keep heat indices in the 98-102 degree
range.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Will keep the TEMPO for MVFR visibility at KACT from 12-14Z,
otherwise strengthening high pressure aloft will create VFR and
quiet aviation weather through Friday.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  75  96  74  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                93  73  95  72  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               91  69  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              94  71  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            92  71  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              94  74  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             92  70  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           93  72  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              93  73  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       93  71  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$