272
FXUS64 KFWD 102237
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Widely scattered thunderstorms will gradually decrease in coverage
through sunset. Limited instability and very weak flow will keep
the storms brief and generally below severe limits. The slow
movement of the storms will result in some heavy rainfall which
could produce localized flooding. Storms will dissipate during the
evening with the next round of storms expected overnight/Tuesday,
as detailed in the discussion below.

The current forecast is in good shape and no major changes are
needed at this time.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tomorrow/

A weak surface cold front moved through North Texas early this
morning and has stalled over Central Texas. A few showers and
storms have developed near the cold front in Central Texas with
additional showers and storms ongoing over North Texas in the
vicinity of the elevated cold front between the 950-850 mb layer.
These trends (scattered popup showers and storms) are expected to
continue through the afternoon and early evening, with hit/miss
showers and storms expanding across most of the region later
today. Instability is weak, with narrow CAPE profiles and meager
lapse rates aloft. Moreover, there is very little deep-layer shear
so the convective mode should remain unorganized with a very low
threat of strong or severe storms. Our main concern will be bouts
of heavy rain that may lead to flooding, particularly if it falls
over locations that are already experiencing lingering flooding
from earlier rain events. Most of the storms should dissipate
within an hour or two of sunset this evening.

Our attention will shift to the west where a MCS, or at least a
disorganized cluster of storms, is forecast to develop near the
New Mexico/Texas border this afternoon and move east across the
state tonight. This system will be aided by a well-organized
shortwave trough which should provide enough ascent to sustain
convective activity through the night. The leading edge of this
line should be aided by a decent cold pool that will eventually
out-pace the shortwave trough by the time it approaches the I-35
corridor around sunrise (give or take a couple hours). This will
leave our area under broad mid-level ascent with a stalled surface
boundary from the early morning storms. Another day of scattered
showers and storms is expected tomorrow, with initial convective
initiation areas taking place near the stalled boundary and ahead
of the shortwave trough. The addition of the shortwave trough will
bring a little more mid and upper-level shear, ever so slightly
nudging up the potential for a few strong storms in the afternoon.

The additional cloud cover and precipitation will result in lower
temperatures the next two days, with highs generally in the mid
80s, although a few sites across Central Texas will peak in the
low 90s. Heat index values will peak in the upper 90s across
Central Texas where dewpoints remain in the mid 70s during peak
heating.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 416 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
/Wednesday Through Early Next Week/

The slow-moving shortwave responsible for our current bout of
unsettled weather will slide across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday, bringing one final round of showers and storms. While
this will impart some directional shear, rather weak flow will
maintain disorganized clusters. A few updrafts may be able to
support small hail and an associated downburst, but the main
concern with these plodding cells will be additional heavy
rainfall reaggravating flooding issues. The trajectory of the
feature will place the bulk of the activity in western portions of
North Texas overnight into early Wednesday morning, then primarily
across Central Texas during the daylight hours Wednesday. The
event should come to an end in our southern zones by early
Wednesday afternoon.

A cut-off low that will spend most of the week spinning offshore
of Southern California will finally move inland late in the week,
eventually transiting the Rockies. This will tilt a ridge axis to
our west into the Lone Star State, reducing cloud cover and
steadily raising temperatures into the upcoming weekend. Rich
Gulf moisture should keep highs in the 90s, but heat index values
will approach 100 by late in the week. Tropical easterlies may
introduce some sea breeze showers/storms by Sunday, but the bulk
of the activity should remain to our southeast. The ridge will re-
establish itself over the Southeast U.S. early next week, nosing
an inverted trough into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Its
associated daytime convection may reach as far as East Texas on
Monday afternoon.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/

/00Z TAFs/

The primary aviation weather concern through Tuesday afternoon
will be scattered thunderstorms. The ongoing storms this
afternoon will decrease in coverage and eventually dissipate a
couple of hours after sunset. Our next cluster of storms will
arrive across Central Texas, including Waco, early Tuesday
morning, but the D10 terminals will likely not see storms until
mid to late morning. Storms will be a bit more numerous than
today since large scale lift associated with a passing shortwave
will be present. Storms will still flourish in the presence of
outflow boundaries, so it will be difficult to pinpoint the best
storm timing.

Except for lower ceilings/visibility in thunderstorms, VFR
conditions are expected through tonight with a brief return of
MVFR stratus Tuesday morning.

A northeast to east wind will prevail tonight, becoming more east
to southeast on Tuesday. Sustained speeds will be generally below
10 knots, except for brief bouts of stronger and gusty winds in
and near any thunderstorms.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  86  71  89  72 /  20  30  20  20   5
Waco                72  87  71  85  70 /  20  40  30  30   5
Paris               67  86  65  87  64 /   0  10   5   5   0
Denton              69  84  68  89  68 /  10  30  20  20   0
McKinney            69  86  68  88  68 /  10  20  20  20   0
Dallas              73  87  71  89  70 /  20  30  20  20   5
Terrell             71  86  68  87  68 /  20  20  20  20   5
Corsicana           73  88  72  87  70 /  20  30  20  20   5
Temple              72  89  71  87  71 /  20  40  30  40   5
Mineral Wells       70  85  69  88  69 /  20  50  40  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$