339
FXUS64 KFWD 101813
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
113 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tomorrow/

A weak surface cold front moved through North Texas early this
morning and has stalled over Central Texas. A few showers and
storms have developed near the cold front in Central Texas with
additional showers and storms ongoing over North Texas in the
vicinity of the elevated cold front between the 950-850 mb layer.
These trends (scattered popup showers and storms) are expected to
continue through the afternoon and early evening, with hit/miss
showers and storms expanding across most of the region later
today. Instability is weak, with narrow CAPE profiles and meager
lapse rates aloft. Moreover, there is very little deep-layer shear
so the convective mode should remain unorganized with a very low
threat of strong or severe storms. Our main concern will be bouts
of heavy rain that may lead to flooding, particularly if it falls
over locations that are already experiencing lingering flooding
from earlier rain events. Most of the storms should dissipate
within an hour or two of sunset this evening.

Our attention will shift to the west where a MCS, or at least a
disorganized cluster of storms, is forecast to develop near the
New Mexico/Texas border this afternoon and move east across the
state tonight. This system will be aided by a well-organized
shortwave trough which should provide enough ascent to sustain
convective activity through the night. The leading edge of this
line should be aided by a decent cold pool that will eventually
out-pace the shortwave trough by the time it approaches the I-35
corridor around sunrise (give or take a couple hours). This will
leave our area under broad mid-level ascent with a stalled surface
boundary from the early morning storms. Another day of scattered
showers and storms is expected tomorrow, with initial convective
initiation areas taking place near the stalled boundary and ahead
of the shortwave trough. The addition of the shortwave trough will
bring a little more mid and upper-level shear, ever so slightly
nudging up the potential for a few strong storms in the afternoon.

The additional cloud cover and precipitation will result in lower
temperatures the next two days, with highs generally in the mid
80s, although a few sites across Central Texas will peak in the
low 90s. Heat index values will peak in the upper 90s across
Central Texas where dewpoints remain in the mid 70s during peak
heating.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

The storm chances mentioned in the short term discussion will
continue Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for areas primarily west
of I-35, before tapering off as North & Central TX shifts into a
rain-free period following the departure of the upper level
shortwave.

Ridging will expand overhead and result in warming temperatures
and no meaningful rain chances midweek onward. Highs will climb
into the 80s for one more day Wednesday (a few degrees below
normal) before reaching the low/mid 90s each afternoon through the
workweek. The heat will continue into the weekend with slightly
higher moisture on Sunday likely resulting in heat indices near
or in excess of the triple digit mark for many areas. Isolated sea
breeze activity may also reach parts of the Brazos Valley over
the weekend, but coverage will remain low.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings currently blanket most of North Texas, but expect
most of the ceilings to lift/scatter over the next 1-2 hours. A
couple weak cold fronts (one over Central Texas and another over
North Texas) has helped develop scattered showers/storms early
this afternoon, with surface heating helping to develop additional
storms through the afternoon. There is very little instability
over the area so most of the storms should be short-lived and
unorganized. Due to this and the hit/miss nature of the precip
today, we were not confident enough to add on-station TS to the
D10 TAFs...but did add a TS TEMPO at ACT with the front being
closer to the terminal.

Most of the storms will dissipate with the loss of heating this
evening before a cluster of storms moves into the region from the
west in the early morning hours. This should largely miss the D10
terminals but will likely move over ACT near/before sunrise. A
leftover boundary will stall in the area, allowing for another day
of popup showers and storms tomorrow afternoon.

Bonnette

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  73  86  70  89 /  50  20  30  20  10
Waco                89  72  87  70  86 /  50  20  40  20  20
Paris               83  67  86  64  88 /  40   0  10   5   5
Denton              81  69  84  67  89 /  50  10  30  20  10
McKinney            82  69  86  67  88 /  50  10  20  10  10
Dallas              85  73  87  70  89 /  50  20  30  20  10
Terrell             84  71  86  67  88 /  50  20  20  10  10
Corsicana           88  73  88  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  10
Temple              91  72  89  70  87 /  50  20  40  20  20
Mineral Wells       83  70  85  68  88 /  50  20  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$