247
FXUS64 KFWD 092100
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1254 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024/
/Through Monday/

Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail the rest of today
before low storm chances arrive late this afternoon and evening.
A weak cold front continues to sag southward towards the TX/OK
border, and this boundary is likely to result in scattered
convection during peak heating as destabilization occurs.
Thunderstorms could affect our northern zones depending on how far
south this front advances the rest of this afternoon, and a
couple of strong storms with hail/wind threats can`t be ruled out.
However, a lack of shear will tend to limit storm organization
and strength. In addition, convection from an active West Texas
dryline is also likely to spread eastward towards the forecast
area overnight, some of which may spill into our northwestern
zones tomorrow morning while simultaneously weakening.

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing
tomorrow morning across North Texas as the front slowly continues
its southward advance. The overall environment will be
unfavorable for severe thunderstorms, but can`t completely rule
out some updrafts capable of hail with MUCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg
above the frontal inversion. PW values will also be remarkably
high, and any storms that do exist will be capable of brief heavy
downpours. However, the potential for long-lived training
thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall and flooding is rather
low, and will once again be mitigated by a lack of shear to
organize deep convection. Showers and storms will accompany the
front southward into Central Texas during the afternoon, while
perhaps a slightly more organized complex encroaches on the area
from West Texas heading into the evening. With plenty of clouds
present along with slightly cooler air behind the front, highs
will only reach the mid 80s for most locations, with the exception
of southern Central Texas where temperatures will climb to around
90 prior to the front`s arrival.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/

A shortwave trough will slowly transit the region Tuesday and
Wednesday, bringing additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms. With the dissolution of the frontal boundary,
outflow from earlier convection will be the main features to focus
renewed development. A rather languid wind field will allow such
boundaries to linger. While the disturbance aloft will introduce
some directional shear, the flow will be seasonally subdued. This
will both limit the severe potential and reduce the speed of
individual cells. But there will still be enough instability and
forcing aloft to allow for some strong or marginally severe
storms, with hail and wind the potential hazards. Despite the
directional shear aloft, the weak flow within the boundary layer
should largely eliminate the tornadic potential. With considerable
precipitable water values, slow-moving downpours could reaggravate
flooding issues.

The mid-week event will likely feature two main rounds: one driven
by daytime heating Tuesday afternoon and a second resulting from
nocturnal forcing within the core of the shortwave early Wednesday
morning. Guidance is in better agreement with the timing and
evolution of the feature, the downglide portion of which should be
in place by midday Wednesday. Another extended rain-free period
will begin Wednesday afternoon.

A West Coast low will move inland late in the week and trek
through the Rockies. The will cause the meridionally oriented
ridge axis to our west to gain a positive tilt, nosing into the
Lone Star State. This will reduce cloud cover and steadily raise
temperatures into the upcoming weekend. Rich Gulf moisture should
keep highs in the 90s, but heat index values will approach 100 by
late in the week. Tropical easterlies may introduce some sea
breeze showers/storms during the weekend, but the bulk of the
activity should remain to our southeast.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1254 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024/
/18z TAFs/

VFR will prevail the rest of today with a south wind around 10
kts. A weak frontal zone will move into the area tonight,
resulting in a 10 kt northeast wind shift around 06z for D10
airports. A swath of post-frontal stratus will follow, with MVFR
(and perhaps intermittent IFR) cigs likely to affect all TAF
sites heading into Monday morning. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity is also likely near and behind this front,
with a few hours of showers and perhaps some brief TS activity
near the TAF sites early tomorrow morning. Convective activity
should be shifting into Central Texas by the afternoon, but MVFR
cigs are likely to linger for most of the daytime.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  85  71  87  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
Waco                74  87  72  88  71 /  10  30  20  20  20
Paris               69  82  64  85  65 /  20  20   5  10   5
Denton              69  84  68  86  68 /  30  30  20  20  30
McKinney            71  84  68  86  68 /  30  30  20  20  20
Dallas              73  85  71  87  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
Terrell             72  85  68  86  68 /  20  30  20  20  10
Corsicana           74  88  71  88  71 /  10  30  20  20  20
Temple              74  90  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
Mineral Wells       71  84  69  88  69 /  30  40  20  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$