168
FXUS64 KFWD 080820
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
320 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1139 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/
/Overnight through Sunday/

Skies will remain mostly clear for the rest of the night with
southerly winds around 10 mph and warm temperatures. Overnight
lows will only manage the mid 70s for most locations.

Mid level ridging will continue to prevail across the Southern
Plains on Saturday with mostly sunny skies expected and
temperatures again climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Southerly
winds will become breezy by afternoon thanks to modest mixing and
this should result in dewpoints falling into the low/mid 60s.
While it`ll be hot, heat index values should top out in the upper
90s to near 100, but breezy conditions will make it feel a bit
more tolerable.

The upper ridge will begin to shift eastward Saturday night into
Sunday which will result in slightly "cooler" conditions on Sunday
as forecast highs are expected to top out in the lower 90s. Weaker
winds and slightly higher dewpoints will make it feel a little
more humid. Farther to the north, stronger northwest flow aloft
and a passing shortwave through the Central Plains will result in
a weak cold front sliding southward through Oklahoma. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop along this boundary but should
remain well removed from North Texas.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night through Friday/

The aforementioned cold front will continue to sag south across
the Red River late Sunday night into Monday with an increase in
scattered showers and storms expected. Activity right along the
front will likely diminish in coverage and intensity through the
night while a complex of storms may be ongoing across far West
Texas. This activity would likely dive southward into a pool of
untapped instability and generally remain to our west. We`ll show
some increasing PoPs late Sunday night across our western counties
to account for this. On Monday, the frontal boundary should be
draped somewhere near the I-20 corridor, but mid and upper level
winds will be weak and there doesn`t appear to be any appreciable
large scale forcing for ascent. That being said, PWs will approach
2" and easterly low level flow through about 800 mb should result
in a weakly capped environment. This should support at least
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of
the frontal boundary. Better storm chances may actually occur late
Tuesday and Tuesday night as the global guidance suggests a modest
shortwave will spread southeast through the Southern Plains.
While the coverage of storms remains a little uncertain, strong
afternoon instability should lead to a cluster of thunderstorms
developing near the lingering frontal boundary and weak surface
low off to the northwest. This activity would spread southeast
into the region Tuesday evening/night. For now, we`ll have PoPs at
30-40% for this timeframe, but these may need to be increased in
future updates. Temperatures will remain suppressed a bit Monday
and Tuesday with increased cloud cover and rain chances, but
ridging will begin to overspread the region Wednesday through
Friday and we`ll see a corresponding increase in afternoon high
temperatures.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1139 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds becoming
breezy by afternoon. No significant aviation concerns are expected
through Saturday night.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  93  73  88  72 /   0   0  10  30  20
Waco                73  91  74  89  73 /   0   0  10  20  20
Paris               71  91  70  83  68 /   0   0  10  30  10
Denton              72  93  70  86  69 /   0   0  20  30  20
McKinney            72  92  70  86  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
Dallas              74  94  73  88  72 /   0   0  10  30  20
Terrell             71  91  71  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
Corsicana           73  92  74  90  73 /   0   0   5  20  20
Temple              72  92  73  90  72 /   0   0   5  20  20
Mineral Wells       72  94  71  88  71 /   0   0  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$