Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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447 FXUS64 KFWD 081036 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 536 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No changes needed to the current forecast. An outflow boundary from convection well to the northwest has pushed into southern Oklahoma this morning and a few showers have developed along it in the last hour. These are expected to stay north of the Red River. Other than some high clouds, no significant weather is expected other than the heat. Highs will top out in the mid 90s with heat indices near 100 degrees. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Sunday/ Skies will remain mostly clear for the rest of the night with southerly winds around 10 mph and warm temperatures. Overnight lows will only manage the mid 70s for most locations. Mid level ridging will continue to prevail across the Southern Plains on Saturday with mostly sunny skies expected and temperatures again climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Southerly winds will become breezy by afternoon thanks to modest mixing and this should result in dewpoints falling into the low/mid 60s. While it`ll be hot, heat index values should top out in the upper 90s to near 100, but breezy conditions will make it feel a bit more tolerable. The upper ridge will begin to shift eastward Saturday night into Sunday which will result in slightly "cooler" conditions on Sunday as forecast highs are expected to top out in the lower 90s. Weaker winds and slightly higher dewpoints will make it feel a little more humid. Farther to the north, stronger northwest flow aloft and a passing shortwave through the Central Plains will result in a weak cold front sliding southward through Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along this boundary but should remain well removed from North Texas. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/ /Sunday Night through Friday/ The aforementioned cold front will continue to sag south across the Red River late Sunday night into Monday with an increase in scattered showers and storms expected. Activity right along the front will likely diminish in coverage and intensity through the night while a complex of storms may be ongoing across far West Texas. This activity would likely dive southward into a pool of untapped instability and generally remain to our west. We`ll show some increasing PoPs late Sunday night across our western counties to account for this. On Monday, the frontal boundary should be draped somewhere near the I-20 corridor, but mid and upper level winds will be weak and there doesn`t appear to be any appreciable large scale forcing for ascent. That being said, PWs will approach 2" and easterly low level flow through about 800 mb should result in a weakly capped environment. This should support at least scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Better storm chances may actually occur late Tuesday and Tuesday night as the global guidance suggests a modest shortwave will spread southeast through the Southern Plains. While the coverage of storms remains a little uncertain, strong afternoon instability should lead to a cluster of thunderstorms developing near the lingering frontal boundary and weak surface low off to the northwest. This activity would spread southeast into the region Tuesday evening/night. For now, we`ll have PoPs at 30-40% for this timeframe, but these may need to be increased in future updates. Temperatures will remain suppressed a bit Monday and Tuesday with increased cloud cover and rain chances, but ridging will begin to overspread the region Wednesday through Friday and we`ll see a corresponding increase in afternoon high temperatures. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR is expected to prevail through the period with breezy southerly winds this afternoon. No significant weather is expected. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 74 93 73 88 / 0 0 0 10 30 Waco 93 73 91 74 89 / 0 0 0 10 20 Paris 92 72 91 70 83 / 0 0 0 10 30 Denton 95 72 93 70 86 / 0 0 0 20 30 McKinney 94 72 92 70 86 / 0 0 0 10 30 Dallas 96 73 94 73 88 / 0 0 0 10 30 Terrell 92 71 91 71 87 / 0 0 0 10 30 Corsicana 94 73 92 74 90 / 0 0 0 5 20 Temple 94 72 92 73 90 / 0 0 0 5 20 Mineral Wells 97 73 95 71 88 / 0 0 0 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$