064
FXUS64 KFWD 072207
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
507 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Only 3 words sum up this short term forecast-
"High Pressure Rules!!!"

The current forecast is in super shape and no major changes are
needed at this time (see discussion below).

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/

Seasonable heat and humidity is in store heading into the weekend
as upper ridging builds overhead. Convective activity on the
outer periphery of the ridge will stay well removed from the
forecast area through the next 36 hours with strong subsidence
overhead locally. Accordingly, ongoing high-based convection in
the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma will not be able to
survive while encroaching on western North Texas. Otherwise,
despite high temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 90s
both today and tomorrow, heat index values will be tempered by
decent mixing out of boundary layer moisture with dewpoints
falling into the mid and upper 60s for most locations during peak
heating. This will yield heat index values of roughly 98-105, so
those planning to spend time outdoors this weekend should still
plan on taking steps to escape the heat.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 355 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/
/Next Week/

The ridging aloft responsible for our very warm and humid weekend
will shift into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, shaving a few
degrees off daytime highs. However, heat index values may still
flirt with the century mark. The pattern shift will also allow a
late-season cold front to invade the Southern Plains. A daytime-
heating-induced uptick in convection along the advancing boundary
will be well to our north during the afternoon hours, from the
Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma. Although it will steadily
diminish in intensity, the activity will eventually enter North
Texas Sunday evening, making additional progress during the
overnight hours Sunday night into early Monday morning.

The frontal boundary will lose its forward momentum, but the
arrival of a shortwave trough into the Southern Plains on Monday
should assist its southern progress. Aided by renewed convective
activity Monday afternoon, the front will finally sag through the
region, with backing surface winds. Once the shortwave passes to
our east, a period of northwest flow will ensue, with a mid-level
ridge axis through New Mexico and Chihuahua. Even with minimal
cloud cover, this will assure below normal temperatures prevail
through midweek.

A cut-off low that will spend most of the week tormenting Southern
California will finally move inland late in the week. This will
tilt the ridge axis into the Lone Star State, resulting in the
return of afternoon temperatures in the 90s. With persistent Gulf
moisture remaining in place, triple-digit heat index values will
be in place by next weekend.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

No aviation weather concerns are anticipated across the region
through Saturday afternoon with a mostly clear sky, no visibility
restrictions, and no precipitation.

Southerly winds will remain in the 7 to 12 knot range tonight
along with some higher gusts through sunset. The surface pressure
gradient will tighten on Saturday in response to deepening low
pressure across the Southern High Plains. Wind speeds will
increase between 13 and 18 knots along with some gusts in excess
of 25 knots, especially Saturday afternoon.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  96  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
Waco                74  93  73  91  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               72  92  71  91  71 /   5   5   0   0  20
Denton              74  96  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  30
McKinney            74  95  72  92  71 /   5   0   0   0  20
Dallas              76  96  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
Terrell             74  93  71  91  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           75  94  73  92  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              73  94  72  92  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       74  97  73  95  71 /   0   0   0   0  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$