273
FXUS64 KFWD 120032
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
732 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Evening radar and satellite imagery shows the remnants of this
afternoon`s convection that developed along outflow boundaries
left behind by the earlier MCS. This activity has nearly cleared
our forecast area leaving most of the North and Central Texas
rain-free at this hour. Any lingering rain chances should wane
over the next hour or two with the loss of instability. There
remains a potential for overnight re-development in the vicinity
of the southeastward drifting mid-level low in addition to
convective development along remnant outflow boundaries into the
early afternoon on Wednesday. Adjustments have been made to
account for the deep moisture available as forcing for ascent is
maximized overhead, with slight chance PoPs (25% or less) pulled
northward into portions of North Texas including the Metroplex.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Wednesday/

A decaying complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to move
east/southeast. While this activity will gradually dissipate over
the next few hours, a reinvigoration of showers and storms is
expected along any outflow boundaries through the afternoon as
surface heating results in further destabilization. Strong
subsidence will keep much of the Metroplex and areas further west
quiet, with additional development likely concentrated in
northern parts of the Metroplex and eastern North Texas, as well
as portions of Central Texas. Coverage should remain fairly
scattered with this afternoon`s activity, and the severe threat
will be low given marginal deep-layer shear. However, we can`t
rule out an isolated strong or marginally severe storm capable of
producing 1" hail and strong wind gusts. The best potential for an
isolated severe storm will be across Central Texas.

Since much of the afternoon convection will be diurnally-driven,
showers and storms will wane near sunset with the loss of daytime
heating. A brief lull is expected overnight, but with an upper low
remaining overhead, additional scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop late tonight and continue through Wednesday
morning. While most of this activity will remain across Central
Texas, latest CAMs are depicting some development further north
(including the Metroplex). Storm chances will be lower as we head
into Wednesday afternoon, but we can`t rule out a few additional
diurnally-driven showers and storms for the remainder of the day.
10% PoPs were introduced for most of the area to reflect this
potential. Otherwise, Wednesday will be a bit warmer than today
but still near-average by mid-June standards, with afternoon highs
in the mid to upper 80s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 313 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/
/Thursday through next Tuesday/

A relatively dry and seasonably warm pattern will persist across
the region from the middle of this week through the early portion
of next week.

In the near-term, a compact upper level ridge centered over
northern Mexico will expand in coverage across the Southern
Plains. Subsidence associated with this high will produce mostly
clear skies, an absence of precipitation, and most significantly,
an increase in daytime temperatures as we reach the latter
portion of the workweek. Many locations will see afternoon highs
in the mid 90s by Friday, a marked increase from the cooler
readings experienced early this week. Fortunately, daytime
dewpoints should remain in the 60s for the most part, limiting any
extremes in heat index values.

The axis of the upper ridge will become elongated more west-east
and shift just south of our area by the weekend. In addition, a
distinct weakness in the ridge will emerge as a vigorous
shortwave trough zips out of the Rockies across the Central
Plains. Large-scale subsidence should diminish accordingly, but
given abundant insolation, believe highs should still manage to
reach the mid 90s in many areas both days.

The weakness in the ridge should linger into the Monday-Tuesday
timeframe, coupled with the evolution of a weak inverted trough
extending from the western Gulf into Southeast Texas. Scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this trough will
tick up across East/Southeast Texas by Monday afternoon. Some of
this precipitation may build into our southeast counties during
the afternoons, and this is reflected in low end chance PoPs
depicted both days. Otherwise, daytime highs in the lower to
middle 90s will remain the rule areawide through Tuesday - just a
touch above seasonal norms for mid-June.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Aviation Weather Concerns: Scattered convection re-developing
overnight and MVFR ceilings spreading eastward into Central Texas

Any ongoing showers and storms should continue to dissipate over
the next hour as instability wanes. Additional slight TS chances
are likely to develop overnight (after 08Z) as an area of low
pressure drifts southeastward over North and Central Texas and
convection re-develops in response. Given the expected
scattered/disorganized coverage of this activity, VCTS has been
introduced into the Metroplex TAFs. However, confidence in direct
terminal impacts is too low to introduce any mention of TSRA.
Latest model trends continue to favor higher coverage of
convection across Central Texas including at KACT. Have introduced
a TEMPO group for TSRA after 12/09Z.

Otherwise VFR prevails with MVFR ceilings expected to build
across Central Texas after daybreak, and reaching Waco by 15Z. In
the wake of this afternoon`s convection, surface winds remain very
light and variable region-wide with no wind shifts expected this
TAF period apart from gusty and erratic winds associated with
storms and outflows.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  90  73  93  73 /  20   5   0   0   0
Waco                72  87  71  91  70 /  30  20   0   0   0
Paris               66  87  65  91  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              69  90  69  92  68 /  10   5   0   0   0
McKinney            69  89  69  92  68 /  10   5   0   0   0
Dallas              72  90  71  93  70 /  20   5   0   0   0
Terrell             70  88  68  91  68 /  10   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           72  90  71  93  70 /  20  10   0   0   0
Temple              72  88  72  92  71 /  30  30   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  89  70  94  70 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$