946
FXUS64 KFWD 110510
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1210 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

A weak front will remain somewhat stationary south of the region
for the next few days, keeping temperatures slightly below normal
in the near-term. Afternoon highs in the 80s can be expected
Tuesday with a light east to northeast breeze. Wednesday will be a
touch warmer as the front becomes diffuse and southeast winds
return.

The main weather feature of note is an upper low currently
spiraling over the Texas Panhandle. This system will move
southeast from the Panhandle into western portions of North Texas
during the day Tuesday, generating a round of scattered showers
and thunderstorms across parts of the region. The best rain
chances will be along and west of I-35 in the vicinity of the
upper low, though slight chance POPs will extend across the
eastern counties where more isolated convection may occur. Storms
should peak in the afternoon during maximum instability, a few of
which may be strong with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain.
Weak flow aloft and a lack of appreciable deep layer shear will
keep the severe threat in check, though an isolated storm or two
may over-achieve and produce quarter sized hail and a damaging
wind gust. Slow storm movement may also lead to localized
flooding.

Activity will wane Tuesday evening with the loss of instability.
The low will drop south through Central Texas Tuesday night and
Southeast Texas on Wednesday as a mid level ridge re-strengthens
over the southern Rockies, shifting most of the precipitation
south of the forecast area on Wednesday. However, chance POPs will
remain in place for areas generally south of I-20 where diurnally
driven convection may still occur on the northern flank of the
upper low.


30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 416 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
/Wednesday Through Early Next Week/

The slow-moving shortwave responsible for our current bout of
unsettled weather will slide across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday, bringing one final round of showers and storms. While
this will impart some directional shear, rather weak flow will
maintain disorganized clusters. A few updrafts may be able to
support small hail and an associated downburst, but the main
concern with these plodding cells will be additional heavy
rainfall reaggravating flooding issues. The trajectory of the
feature will place the bulk of the activity in western portions of
North Texas overnight into early Wednesday morning, then primarily
across Central Texas during the daylight hours Wednesday. The
event should come to an end in our southern zones by early
Wednesday afternoon.

A cut-off low that will spend most of the week spinning offshore
of Southern California will finally move inland late in the week,
eventually transiting the Rockies. This will tilt a ridge axis to
our west into the Lone Star State, reducing cloud cover and
steadily raising temperatures into the upcoming weekend. Rich
Gulf moisture should keep highs in the 90s, but heat index values
will approach 100 by late in the week. Tropical easterlies may
introduce some sea breeze showers/storms by Sunday, but the bulk
of the activity should remain to our southeast. The ridge will re-
establish itself over the Southeast U.S. early next week, nosing
an inverted trough into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Its
associated daytime convection may reach as far as East Texas on
Monday afternoon.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings will can be expected through much of the morning,
eventually lifting to VFR around midday Tuesday. Spotty rain
showers will be possible during the morning, then isolated
thunderstorms should begin to develop near KACT and the DFW
Metroplex around or shortly after 18Z. An overall increase in
thunderstorm coverage is expected through the mid to late
afternoon hours, with activity waning around or shortly after
12/00Z. Per the latest CAM guidance, VCSH has been introduced for
this morning, VCTS was pushed back to 18Z and will remain in the
TAFs until 12/00Z.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  89  72  92  73 /  20   5   5   0   0
Waco                71  87  70  90  71 /  30  20   5   5   0
Paris               66  88  64  90  66 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              68  88  68  92  70 /  20   5   0   0   0
McKinney            68  88  68  92  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
Dallas              71  89  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   0   0
Terrell             69  88  68  92  69 /  10   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           71  88  70  92  71 /  20  10   5   5   0
Temple              71  88  71  91  71 /  30  20   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       69  88  69  92  71 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$