366
FXUS64 KFWD 231938
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
238 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/
/This Afternoon Through Tonight/

Thunderstorms are ongoing across Central Texas late this morning
in an area of high instability and rich moisture. The storms are
being aided by a subtle shortwave rotating through the region. We
have seen a few low end severe storms this morning and it does
look like daytime heating is helping intensify the storms
currently. This trend will likely continue through the afternoon.
The unknown is how far north convection will develop since this
broken complex of storms may rob North Texas of the best moisture
and instability and result in weak subsidence on the northern
periphery. Many of the CAMs including the HRRR, have picked up on
this but there is still a chance that northward moving outflow
boundaries and afternoon heating could produce scattered storms
across North Texas. Therefore, we will keep chance PoPs through
the afternoon for nearly all zones. Any storms that do develop
this afternoon have a potential to produce hail and gusty winds.
There is a lesser tornado threat than yesterday, but still non-
zero. Ample moisture will also keep the threat for flooding
elevated, especially in locations that saw heavy rainfall
yesterday so we will keep the Flood Watch in place. Storms will
exit the region to the northeast during the evening with passing
shortwave energy and the loss of surface heating.

One thing that has been interesting this morning is strong and
gusty winds far removed from the convection, likely a result of a
wake low. We have actually seen some 40+ mph winds and minor
damage in a few spots.

Outside of the storms, it will be partly to mostly cloudy, very
warm and humid through tonight with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 70s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday through Thursday/

The weather pattern will remain active as we head into the
weekend with low level moisture staying in place and multiple
shortwaves moving though southwest flow aloft. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible on Friday along and ahead of a cold
front and dryline. The best storm chances will be during the late
afternoon and early evening, mainly east of the I-35 corridor. A
cap of warm air will limit/prevent storms from developing, but if
the cap breaks, storm could become strong to severe quickly,
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The loss of
surface heating and the passage of the shortwave will end storm
chances Friday evening.

Saturday morning should start out rain-free but another shortwave
will emerge out of West Texas in the afternoon while a dryline
approaches from the west. The best storm chances will be from the
Red River northward where the cap is most likely to break, but
there is at least a low potential for storms across most of North
Texas. Any storm that manages to develop will have potential to
become severe. Storms will shift eastward with the passing
shortwave Saturday night.

Sunday should be rain-free with no discernible source of lift on
either the synoptic or mesoscale. The passage of a shortwave
across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night will send a
cold front southward through the region on Memorial Day. We don`t
anticipate any storms with the front since moisture will be very
limited above 850 mb. However, there may be just enough moisture
across Central Texas for a few thunderstorms Monday evening. The
front will bring a temporary end to the oppressive humidity, with
dew points falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Tuesday
morning. The front will lift slowly back to the north Tuesday
night through Wednesday, resulting in low level moisture return
and a return of thunderstorm chances. Storm chances will increase
Wednesday night through Thursday with the passage of a shortwave.

High temperatures Friday through Sunday will be generally in the
90s and low temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s. High
temperatures Memorial Day through Thursday will be slightly
cooler with mainly 80s and lower 90s. Lows will finally fall below
the 70s for most locations the first half of next week.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

The main aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be
thunderstorm placement and timing. A broken complex of storms
will continue to impact Waco though mid-afternoon and possibly
beyond. Storms will be less certain across the Metroplex TAF
sites since the Central Texas complex is currently producing some
weak subsidence on the north side and disrupting the influx of
moisture. We could still see some storms in the vicinity of the
Metroplex TAF sites during peak heating (20Z - 00Z) but coverage
should be limited. All storms will dissipate or move northeast of
the region during the evening, leaving the overnight period rain-
free.

Low ceilings will continue to scatter across D10 through the
afternoon, leaving scattered to broken Cu above 3000 ft and
plenty of high clouds. VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals through the evening with MVFR to IFR stratus returning
overnight/Friday morning.

A south wind will prevail between 10 and 16 knots along with some
gusts just above 20 knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  73  93  72  92 /  40  30  20  10   5
Waco                86  73  91  72  92 /  60  30  20  20   5
Paris               84  69  88  69  88 /  50  50  20  30   5
Denton              85  70  93  69  91 /  40  30  20   5   5
McKinney            85  71  90  70  89 /  40  40  20  10   5
Dallas              88  72  93  72  92 /  40  30  20  10   5
Terrell             86  71  90  71  89 /  50  40  20  20   0
Corsicana           88  74  92  73  92 /  50  30  20  20   0
Temple              89  74  92  72  93 /  60  10  20  10   5
Mineral Wells       86  71  93  69  93 /  50  20  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ092>095-102>107-117>123-
130>135-141>148-156>161.

&&

$$