564
FXUS64 KFWD 281809
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
109 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/

With the upper ridge settled directly overhead, hot and dry
conditions will prevail through the remainder of today and
Saturday. The current heat headlines will be allowed to continue
through Saturday evening with an Excessive Heat Warning over the
DFW Metroplex and its collar counties and a Heat Advisory
elsewhere. Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures in the
upper 90s and low 100s and heat index values up to 112 degrees are
expected within the EHW area. Warm overnight lows in the upper 70s
to low 80s will also increase potential heat stress due to the
lack of relief from hot afternoon conditions. Take the necessary
precautions to keep yourself and your loved ones safe from heat-
related illnesses.

High-resolution guidance suggests some isolated sea-breeze
thunderstorm activity may occur over southeast Texas Saturday
afternoon potentially extending as far north as the Brazos Valley.
We have kept PoPs below 15% in our Brazos Valley counties to
account for the very isolated nature of this convection.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 250 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/
/Saturday Night Through Next Week/

The ongoing summer heat will be the main headline in the extended
period, with rain chances remaining near zero through next week.
The only exception to this will be on Sunday as showers and storms
develop near a weak front in Oklahoma. Some of this activity may
skirt areas near the Red River, but this will largely depend on
how far south the front ends up stalling. Otherwise, rain-free
weather is expected, with daily temperatures ranging from the mid
90s to near 104 degrees. Warm and muggy mornings in the mid 70s
to low 80s will continue. Fortunately, slightly lower humidity
should keep heat index values a bit lower than we`re currently
seeing. However, we`ll still meet Heat Advisory criteria across
most of the area each day, so a daily extension of the ongoing
advisory can be expected for the next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of this
afternoon and evening. High clouds and SCT cigs at 4-5kft can
currently be observed over North and Central Texas on satellite
imagery. South winds generally in between 10-20 kts will persist
through the TAF period for all terminals.

A surge of low-level moisture later tonight will likely bring a
period of MVFR cigs to the region Saturday morning. With the
greatest potential for MVFR conditions residing over Central
Texas, we have went with a prevailing MVFR group at KACT starting
at 10Z. MVFR cigs within the D10 airspace will likely bounce
around from SCT to MVFR, so we have included a 13Z-16Z TEMPO for
MVFR at all Metroplex sites.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  82  99  81  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                99  81  97  78  97 /   0   0   5   0   5
Paris               96  78  96  78  95 /   5   0   5   5  20
Denton             101  81 100  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney           100  81  98  79  98 /   5   0   0   0  10
Dallas             101  81  99  81  99 /   5   0   0   0   5
Terrell             97  79  96  78  96 /   5   0   5   0  10
Corsicana           99  82  97  79  98 /   5   0   5   0   5
Temple              99  81  97  77  97 /   0   0  10   0   5
Mineral Wells      101  79  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>094-102>105-117>121-131>134.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-100-101-106-
107-115-116-122-123-129-130-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$