613
FXUS65 KGGW 271942
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
142 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A few showers or thunderstorms this afternoon northeast of a
line extending from Opheim to Wolf Point to Sydney.

2) A ridge moving in will bring a warming trend through Wednesday
with 80s for highs possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

3) Breakdown of the ridge will lead to strong and severe
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A few showers and thunderstorms are forming over our northeastern
part of the CWA this afternoon. These will likely be short lived
pulse storms with gusty winds being the main threat. About a
15-30% chance of measurable rain with only a few hundredths of an
inch expected. These will likely dissipate when we lose daytime
heating.

Fairly fast moving ridge moves in from the west warming things up
into the 70s and 80s Tuesday into Wednesday. By Wednesday
afternoon a new trough and cold front will make a move across the
state. Ahead of the front some Gulf Moisture sets up which should
increase our CAPE values into the 1000-2000 J/kg range. This along
with shear values of 30-40kts should lead to some strong to severe
storms developing Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.
At the moment Storm Prediction Center has the eastern half of the
CWA in a Marginal Risk but its possible that this will eventually
be upgraded to a Slight Risk.

On Thursday temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees cooler with
the air behind the front moving in. A few wrap around showers may
be possible as well as the upper Low moves by. By Friday another
warming trend is expected to start with temperatures reaching
above seasonal averages by next weekend.

CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

High confidence on ridging and warm up tomorrow into Wednesday.

Medium confidence on severe weather chances and intensity for
Wednesday afternoon.

Low confidence on the amount of warming next weekend.

-Bernhart


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2000Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR

DISCUSSION: Some afternoon showers or thunderstorms are possible
through this evening northeast of a line extending from Opheim to
Wolf Point to Sydney. Otherwise expect dry conditions tonight
through Wednesday morning.
SFC WIND: Light and variable overnight, becoming SE 10-15kts
around 15Z Tuesday.

-Bernhart



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow