Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
613 FXUS65 KGGW 271942 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 142 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) A few showers or thunderstorms this afternoon northeast of a line extending from Opheim to Wolf Point to Sydney. 2) A ridge moving in will bring a warming trend through Wednesday with 80s for highs possible Tuesday and Wednesday. 3) Breakdown of the ridge will lead to strong and severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A few showers and thunderstorms are forming over our northeastern part of the CWA this afternoon. These will likely be short lived pulse storms with gusty winds being the main threat. About a 15-30% chance of measurable rain with only a few hundredths of an inch expected. These will likely dissipate when we lose daytime heating. Fairly fast moving ridge moves in from the west warming things up into the 70s and 80s Tuesday into Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon a new trough and cold front will make a move across the state. Ahead of the front some Gulf Moisture sets up which should increase our CAPE values into the 1000-2000 J/kg range. This along with shear values of 30-40kts should lead to some strong to severe storms developing Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. At the moment Storm Prediction Center has the eastern half of the CWA in a Marginal Risk but its possible that this will eventually be upgraded to a Slight Risk. On Thursday temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees cooler with the air behind the front moving in. A few wrap around showers may be possible as well as the upper Low moves by. By Friday another warming trend is expected to start with temperatures reaching above seasonal averages by next weekend. CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence on ridging and warm up tomorrow into Wednesday. Medium confidence on severe weather chances and intensity for Wednesday afternoon. Low confidence on the amount of warming next weekend. -Bernhart && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 2000Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR DISCUSSION: Some afternoon showers or thunderstorms are possible through this evening northeast of a line extending from Opheim to Wolf Point to Sydney. Otherwise expect dry conditions tonight through Wednesday morning. SFC WIND: Light and variable overnight, becoming SE 10-15kts around 15Z Tuesday. -Bernhart && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow