Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
546 FXUS65 KGGW 240844 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 244 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Scattered showers and general thunderstorms this afternoon with a small (5-10%) chance of a severe gust with any cell that occurs south of Highway 200. 2) A warming trend into next week with possible widespread 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the area today with HREF max wind gusts bringing a small chance(5-10%) for some isolated severe downburst gusts south of Highway 200. Most of these showers should exit or dissipate by the mid-evening hours. Unsettled pattern will hold with two distinct periods for prolonged showers and thunderstorms. One is Saturday afternoon to Sunday evening, while the other is Wednesday afternoon to Thursday evening. Rain totals appear to vary from a couple hundredths to upwards of a quarter of an inch with a tenth of an inch being the most common output. A ridge will build between these two evening Sunday night into Tuesday night removing rain chances from the forecast and allowing highs to reach upwards into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday. CONFIDENCE: Confidence holds fairly strong through about Wednesday when the second shortwave arrives and ensemble consistency begins to break apart. Surface wind fields at this time are in flux along with rainfall total grouping being wider over the ensembles. A surface low pressure system may or may not form with the disturbance`s passage with about half the ensembles producing it. GAH && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0800Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR - IFR DISCUSSION: An exiting low pressure system has brought low ceilings and limited fog across the far east this morning impacting KGDV and KSDY. IFR ceilings should exit around 15Z with remaining MVFR exiting around 18Z. Any lingering fog is expected to exit earlier by about 12Z. New showers and thunderstorms will begin entering the region around 18Z today and last into mid evening. Gusty erratic winds will be possible around any thunderstorms but especially near KGDV this afternoon. SFC WIND: Light and north turning variable as the morning continues. Becoming W to NW and increasing to 10 to 15 kts this afternoon before turning light and variable this evening. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow