Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
873 FXUS65 KGGW 260848 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 248 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Gusty west winds today keep a Lake Wind Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms could enhance wind gusts and carry small hail. 2) Expect a slow warming trend into Wednesday, when a cold front brings increased chances for strong thunderstorms. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Daytime instability thunderstorms are expected to regenerate mainly near the Canadian border this afternoon. West winds at the surface and aloft will combine to bring strong wind gusts to most areas of up to 40 mph and higher with some storms. Limited updraft potential and fast storm motion will limit hail and heavy downpour concerns. On Memorial Day, most of the area will experience the beginning of a warming/drying trend, but the northeast zones could experience a shower or thunderstorm before an upper ridge from the Pacific Northwest moves in. The upper ridge will bring warm sunshine to the area for Tuesday before SW flow and an upper trough approaches Wednesday. This will increase the chances for thunderstorms, some of which could be severe as models are indicating CAPEs over 1000 J/kg in parts of the area! In the wake of a cold frontal passage late Wednesday, conditions will be breezy and not as warm on Thursday. Unsettled conditions are expected to last into Saturday with the passage of the upper trough overhead. CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No deviations were made to the base forecast besides slightly refining the timing of thunderstorm chances and strength of winds today. Confidence is high for temperatures remaining close to normal overall for the next week, while currently medium for receiving strong thunderstorms and widespread rainfall of a quarter inch or more midweek. -Zanker && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0830Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR DISCUSSION: After a few hours of clearing this morning, afternoon instability will lead to scattered thunderstorms primarily near KGGW and KOLF through early evening. Small hail and enhanced/erratic gust potential are associated with the storms before clouds mostly clear out tonight. SFC WIND: West at 15-25 kts with gusts of 30-40 kts, becoming northwest at 10-15 kts this evening. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow