150
FXUS65 KGGW 292108
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
308 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Strong convection has begun over southeastern Montana and is
expected to develop and propagate northward. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our south central and
eastern zones bordering North Dakota.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Cold front this evening will push any lingering severe storms
into North Dakota and Saskatchewan. For our northeast Montana
zones, most of the threat seems to be a thunderstorm downdraft
wind moving from east to west across the border. Threats will be
very near our shared border, so a close weather watch is needed.

Thursday into Thursday night: Center of the entering trough will
move across the area and rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
will linger through these periods.

Friday onward: Expect a warming trend with a large ridge
developing over the western half of the CONUS. The crest of the
ridge will nudge northward into Montana Saturday and herald the
arrival of Montana Summer with afternoon 80s becoming more common.

CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

A few mesoscale difference exist in model groupings with this
evening`s storm passage. Some ensemble breakdowns occur in
synoptic features beginning to set in around Thursday night into
Friday as models resolve exactly how fast the trough exits and the
next ridge enters. Here onwards is where confidence breaks down
to moderate.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR through late this afternoon when a cold front will cross the
region with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the
stronger storms could result in brief periods of IFR or worse for
KSDY and KGDV if a storm happens to pass directly overhead.

Winds will increase from the northwest behind the cold front,
Gusty, erratic, severe wind gusts are expected near the stronger
storms this evening.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow