Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
787 FXUS65 KGGW 280948 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 348 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warm and dry conditions expected today. - Strong and severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening with an SPC slight risk area near the North Dakota border. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fairly fast moving ridge moves across the region today, pushed by an upper low along the BC coast. As the low continues eastward, an Alberta surface low develops with a cold front south along the front range by this afternoon. Overnight and into Wednesday as the front moves east, low level jet strengthens, pulling moisture northward along the North Dakota border. This will set up a scenario for severe weather, mainly across the far eastern zones for Wednesday afternoon and evening, as noted by SPC with a slight risk area. As the upper trof across the Canadian prairies, cooler temperatures along with some unstable air lingers over the region for Thursday. Behind the trof, upper flow becomes generally zonal, with occasional shortwaves, for warmer and drier conditions through the weekend. CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence for severe weather on Wednesday afternoon continues to increase, with CAPE in excess of 1000 j/kg, and moisture advection on the strong low level southeast jet with winds in excess of 30kt. HREF ensemble only giving a 10% probability for updraft helicity in excess of 75 m2/s2 through 0z Thursday, but could see higher probability in the early evening. With PW over 1" indicated, heavy rain is also a possibility near the North Dakota border. && .AVIATION... VFR. Mostly clear skies are expected today, with clouds slowing increasing from the west into Wednesday morning. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow