Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
915 FXUS65 KGGW 162012 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 212 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures starting today, with the coldest readings occurring on Monday and Tuesday. - More widespread rain moves in during Monday and Tuesday. - Warming trend later this week, but things remain unsettled with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Today will be cooler as cold air advection moves in behind the departing cold front. A little break in the action overall before a stronger Pacific trough moves in tomorrow bringing widespread rain and even cooler temperatures at 10-20 degrees below mid June averages for both Monday and Tuesday. A warming trend begins Wednesday with temperatures warming close to late June averages by the end of the week. Still unsettled with afternoon showers and thunderstorms continuing to be a possibility. FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS: +++ Main change from the morning forecast package has been for the storm total QPF for the event for Monday - Tuesday night system. Overall, values for this time period fell between a tenth to two tenths of an inch. The biggest changes were for the areas in the periphery of the band of rain stretching across northeast Montana. This means locations like northern Phillips and southern Wibaux counties may end up being drier than presently forecast should the precip only graze those areas. +++ For the Monday to Tuesday PM system, QPF amounts remain about the same, with a probability around 70-80% for at least 0.25", 50-70% for 0.50", and 20-50% for 1". From Wednesday onward confidence is moderate on a gradual warming trend, but low on precipitation chances. Models diverge between a continued trough over the area or bringing in some weak ridging which would impact the precipitation chances each afternoon. -Bernhart/Enriquez && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 2010Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR through tonight. Mostly MVFR Monday DISCUSSION: Dry and windy conditions through tonight transition to a wet and cooler pattern. Isolated scattered showers develop across the region close to midnight-2am time frame, with the bigger surge of showers/thunderstorms picking up west of KGGW through noon on Monday, then spreading eastward Monday afternoon. WIND: WNW`ly winds subside after 5 pm, becoming light and variable tonight. Monday, winds become more NE`ly at 10-15kt, gusting to 20 kts. -Enriquez && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow