![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
187 FXUS65 KGGW 300852 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 252 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) This evening, there are severe thunderstorms possible north of HWY 2 and severe thunderstorms likely south of HWY 2. 2) Unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for thunderstorms will continue the rest of the week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A strong shortwave trough will replace the currently benign conditions. A strong cap is expected to erode along the high terrain of central Montana late this afternoon, as moisture advection will push dewpoints into the upper 50s to low 60s. Bulk shear will mainly be above 40 knots, the low level jet will eventually exceed 30 knots and MU CAPE values are expected to exceed 800 J/kg. These ingredients will aid in thunderstorm development beginning around 5 PM and there is moderate (50 percent) confidence for some of these storms to turn severe trekking eastward. This activity is expected to continue through around midnight before the storms weaken and/or move into North Dakota. A cluster or line of storms producing severe wind is more favored in this scenario, though a few cells containing severe hail are a threat as well. Beyond this time period, shower and thunderstorm chances continue throughout the week, which will help limit high temps from reaching 90 degrees for most of the area. The strength of thunderstorms and amount of beneficial rain in this period are in question based on northwesterly flow continuing through the end of the week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There remains high (80 percent) confidence of thunderstorms occurring this evening, with low to medium (30 to 50 percent) confidence on severe weather at any one location. -Zanker/Stoinskers && .AVIATION... UPDATED: 0830Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR through 00Z Monday, then scattered IFR. DISCUSSION: Mostly sunny skies today will transition into a wave of mid-level clouds with developing thunderstorms impacting TAF sites after 00Z. Some of these may produce severe winds and severe hail this evening, as well as reduce visibility and ceilings down to brief IFR conditions. WINDS: SE at 12 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots until 06Z Monday, with intense gusty winds from thunderstorms after 00Z Monday. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow