364
FXUS63 KGID 192108
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
408 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the
  forecast area through tonight. Best chances look to be across
  northwestern portions of the area, but at least 20 percent
  chances are in place area-wide. A few strong storms with small
  hail/gusty winds will be possible, but severe weather is not
  expected.

- Periodic disturbances moving through the area keep
  preciptiation chances in the forecast, mainly Thursday through
  Saturday, and Monday night through Wednesday. Overall
  confidence in the location/timing of these chances is not
  high.

- Hotter temperatures are expected to return to the area, with
  widespread 90s by Monday/Tuesday. Chances of heat index values
  near/over 100 will also be increasing early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Currently on into tonight...

Upper air and satellite show the area sitting under continued
southwesterly flow...set up between high pressure anchored along
the East Coast and troughing along the West Coast. At the
surface, winds remain easterly across the forecast area, set up
on the southern side of high pressure centered over the
MN/Dakotas border region, with a frontal boundary extending
along the KS/OK border northeastward into the Great Lakes.
Scattered showers and few weak storms to start the day gradually
diminished through the morning hours, and outside of a few
sprinkles here and here, the early afternoon hours have been
dry. That being said, radar imagery showing more scattered
activity across western NE/KS working its way east as another
subtle embedded upper level shortwave disturbances moves out
onto the Plains. Sitting on the cool side of the surface front
with plenty of low-mid level stratus hanging around (though
there have been a few more spots of sun getting through
recently), it`s resulted in a cooler day with overall little
instability to work with...so any storms that do work their way
in to the forecast area not expected to be severe. Thanks to
those handful of breaks in the clouds, highs this afternoon for
most locations are going to end up a few degrees warmer than
expected...3PM obs currently in the low- mid 70s for all but far
eastern locations.

Through the overnight hours, though for most locations it could
end up being dry, hard to totally rule out precipitation
chances...so CWA-wide chances remain in the forecast. Models
continue to show the overall best chances clipping NWrn portions
of the and spreading northward, where better lift from the
increasing low-level jet will be focused, with activity possible
further east along a surface warm front that will start
gradually pushing north. These storms are not expected to be
severe, better deeper layer shear is north vs the better
instability (maybe around 1000 j/kg) is offset from that,
located further south. Can`t rule out a few strong storms with
small hail/gusty winds.

Thursday through Saturday...

Overall, there hasn`t been any significant changes in the
forecast, which continues to have periodic, overall lower
confidence precipitation chances. In the broader picture, models
are in decent agreement showing the southwesterly flow
currently in place remaining largely in place Thursday and
Friday, though the main area of high pressure aloft is sinking
southward closer to the Gulf Coast region. Friday night on
through Saturday night, aided in part to a stronger system
moving east across Canada, the main upper high becomes more
elongated, spread across most of the southern CONUS, resulting
in more zonal flow across the forecast area. We`ll remain in a
location with the potential to be affected by any embedded
shortwave disturbances. Plenty of questions remain with
timing/location of these disturbances and how much of the
forecast area is affected...current forecast keeps the better
chances mainly in the later day/overnight time frames, and
mainly focused across the Nebraska portion of the coverage area.
As far as temperatures go, after the below average temps today,
highs warm right back up for Thursday through Saturday...with
highs generally in the mid 80s- low 90s.

Sunday through Wednesday...

Upper level flow looks to complete the transition to become
northwesterly late saturday night into Sunday, as that low
pressure system/troughing pushing across Canada digs south as
it approaches the eastern CONUS, pushing the center of the upper
high into the Desert SW. The forecast for Sunday and Monday is
currently dry, but confidence in that isn`t overly high...as
models aren`t showing this upper level ridging being strong
enough/extended far enough north to really push the track of any
disturbances north of the forecast area. Will see how models
trend in the coming days. Do have precipitation chances
returning for Tuesday/Wednesday, as another stronger system
moves into the Pac NW, breaking down the ridge a bit. Expecting
another bump up in temperatures, with widespread, solid 90s for
Monday/Tuesday...along with potential for heat index values over
100.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Short term models showing chances for precipitation this
afternoon have diminished, but do return later this
evening/tonight. There are differences between models with
whether any activity moves into the terminal areas, so kept any
mention as VC at this point. Have VFR conditions this afternoon,
with MVFR (potentially IFR) conditions developing this
evening/tonight...potentially lingering through the of this TAF
period. Easterly winds currently in place remain that way this
afternoon, but are expected to turn more southeasterly, then
southerly this evening/tonight. Speeds look to remain around
10-15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP